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Penn St at Virginia 11-30-09

November 30, 2009

The Nittany Lions are coming off a narrow victory over Davidson. Virginia, which has won all four of its home games in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, is coming off a gritty win over Cleveland State in the Cancun Challenge. In that game, Virginia guard Sylven Landesberg had his best performance of the season (20 points, five rebounds, five assists) and walk-on forward Will Sherrill came out of nowhere to register career highs in just about every statistical category.

Jamil Tucker has started practicing with the team but won’t be in uniform for tonight’s game. No word on when he’ll suit up for a game. The Cavaliers are 5-4 all-time in the Challenge, including a 4-0 home record. Tonight’s game is the eighth all-time meeting between Virginia and Penn State with the Cavaliers leading the series 5-2. The teams haven’t met since the 1984-85 season. The ACC has won all 10 previous challenges.

This is the first game in the ACC/Big Ten challenge.  I like the ACC team to start things off right for thier conference. Take Virginia in this one.

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Free Pick Virginia -5.5

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Indiana at Golden State 11-30-09

November 30, 2009

Indiana looks for its first season sweep of Golden State since 2005-06 on Monday night when it faces a Warriors team coming off its worst home loss in three seasons. Making his season debut after undergoing knee surgery in March, Pacers forward Mike Dunleavy hit 4 of 7 from the field and scored 13 points Friday in a 113-92 loss to Dallas. The Pacers (6-8), though, lost their fifth in six games Friday.

While Indiana looks to get off to a good start on its four-game western trip, the Warriors (5-10) are trying to bounce back from Saturday’s 130-97 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Lakers. Smart has taken over coaching duties the last three games while Don Nelson recovers from pneumonia. Nelson isn’t expected back until Thursday against Houston.

Warriors leading scorer Monta Ellislooks to get back on track after missing 11 of 19 shots and scoring 18 points Saturday. Ellis was averaging 37.7 points on 53.7 percent shooting in his previous three games. The Pacers outrebounded Golden State 57-42 in that contest, with rookie Tyler Hansbrough grabbing a season-high eight. Hansbrough is expected to play Monday after leaving in the third quarter Friday with a bruised left knee.  I like the pacers to get back on track in this matchup.

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Free Pick Indiana +2.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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New England at New Orleans 11-30-09

November 30, 2009

It’s been a few weeks since a decent game was played on Monday night – November 9th featured Pittsburgh at Denver. Tonight’s contest should be a classic, as the undefeated New Orleans Saints host the New England Patriots. It’s a role reversal for New England, which tried a few times at chasing history, but now are trying to prevent a perfect season. Last week, the Patriots took their frustrations out on the Jets, a team that won the first meeting, winning 31-14.

However, it was a different story the second time around, as New England put up 24 points in the first half en route to the easy victory. QB Tom Brady had a solid stat day, 28-of-41 for 310 yards and 1 TD, but it was RB Laurence Maroney, 22 carries for 77 yards and 2 TDs, and CB Leigh Bodden, 3 INTS (one for a TD), that sealed the victory for the Patriots. It was a very dominating performance by the Patriots, who won the turnover ratio (+3) and controlled the ball for almost 40 minutes.

The Patriots are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. They are 10-4 to the OVER in their last 14 games off games against the AFC East. New England is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games on the road. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. They are 10-3 to the OVER in their last 13 games off games against the NFC Central. New Orleans is 18-6 ATS against the AFC East. This will be a great football game. I like the patriots to pull out the win.

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Free Pick New England +1.5

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New Jersey at Los Angeles Lakers 11-29-09

November 29, 2009

With a loss to the Lakers, New Jersey (0-16) would join the 1988-89 Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Clippers during the lockout-shortened 1999 season as the only teams to start 0-17.  To avoid reaching that point, New Jersey will first need a better first-half performance than they delivered in Friday night’s 109-96 defeat to Sacramento, the third in a four-game Western road trip. While matching the franchise’s longest losing streak, the Nets fell behind by as many as 22 points late in the second quarter. However, they rallied to cut the deficit to six in the third quarter and seven in the fourth before allowing the Kings to pull away.

The Lakers (12-3) enter Sunday’s matchup having scored 100 points in five straight wins. They delivered their highest point total of the season in Saturday night’s 130-97 victory at Golden State. In his fourth game back from a strained right hamstring, Gasol had 22 points to lead seven players in double figures.

The Nets, meanwhile, have dropped 16 straight road games dating to a 115-89 win over New York on March 18. New Jersey has also lost 27 of 35 all-time road games against Los Angeles. Its loss at the Staples Center last season followed a 102-100 win there on Nov. 25, 2007.

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Free Pick Los Angeles -14.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Nevada at North Carolina 11-29-09

November 29, 2009

North Carolina (5-1), the reigning national champion, has a roster consisting of nine freshmen and sophomores, and Williams is trying to find the right scheme to prepare them for the start of the ACC season in January.

Thompson is certainly producing, leading the Tar Heels with 16.8 points per game while tying sophomore forward Ed Davis for tops on the team with 9.0 rebounds. Thompson matched his career high with 22 points and pulled down 10 boards Monday, one game after notching season lows of 11 points and seven rebounds in an 87-71 loss to Syracuse on Nov. 20. Davis is emerging as a solid compliment to Thompson, averaging 12.2 points. He’s made 11 of 18 shots while posting 15.5 points and 11.5 rebounds over the last two games.

North Carolina has won all four meetings with Nevada—two at home. The Tar Heels won 84-61 at Reno last Dec. 31 in the teams’ first matchup since North Carolina cruised to a 106-70 victory in Chapel Hill on Dec. 27, 2007. Nevada fell to 0-2 on the road Friday, shooting a season-low 35.4 percent and making 1 of 14 3-pointers in an 85-76 loss to Virginia Commonwealth.  I like UNC to win the game, but not to cover.  Look for Nevada to cover the spread.

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Free Pick Nevada +16

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Cleveland at Cincinnati 11-29-09

November 29, 2009

Cincinnati (7-3) opened the season with a 16-12 loss to Denver after giving up a fluky 87-yard touchdown catch with 11 seconds left. The Bengals then surprisingly won seven of eight, posting an 18-12 victory at Pittsburgh on Nov. 15 to move into sole possession of first in the division. They were in prime position to expand that lead last Sunday as the other three teams in the North lost, but the Bengals gave up 10 points in the final 33 seconds to fall 20-17 at Oakland. Cincinnati committed eight penalties, fumbled three times and missed a field goal to see its three-game winning streak come to an end.

Cincinnati has another chance to increase its hold on the North, as Pittsburgh visits Baltimore on Sunday night while it hosts the last-place Browns (1-9). The Bengals will be facing a defense that is ranked last in the NFL, giving up 402.0 yards per game – 154.9 on the ground. Cleveland was on the verge of its second win last week but allowed a 1-yard TD pass as time expired to fall 38-37 at Detroit.The Browns, who have lost five in a row and 14 of 15, showed some improvement offensively, gaining a season-high 439 yards. Blow out in this one.

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Free Pick Cincinnati -13.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Seattle at St. Louis 11-29-09

November 29, 2009

The struggling Seahawks look to snap a six-game road losing streak while trying for a 10th consecutive win over the lowly Rams on Sunday. While St. Louis (1-9) is tied with Tampa Bay for the worst record in NFC and has already clinched a third straight losing season, Seattle is not playing much better.

The Seahawks (3-7) are trying to avoid a third straight loss overall after falling 35-9 at Minnesota last Sunday. Seattle’s six straight road losses have all come by double digits, and it has allowed an average of 32.5 points in those games. Its last road win came Dec. 14, 23-20 at St. Louis. The Seahawks, however, are averaging 29.7 points during their nine-game winning streak over the Rams. St. Louis, which has lost 10 in a row at home since beating Dallas in October 2008, last beat Seattle 23-12 on Nov. 14, 2004. In order to continue dominating this series, Seattle must find a way to bounce back from another blowout loss.

Second in the NFL with 1,031 rushing yards, Jackson had 116 and a TD on 24 carries in a 21-13 home loss to Arizona last Sunday. Jackson, who became the first Rams player to post five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, has rushed for 721 yards in 10 games against the Seahawks, but has failed to reach 100 yards in any single one of those contests. Kyle Boller will make his third start of the season in place of Bulger, expected to miss three to six weeks with a broken left shin bone suffered last Sunday. The Rams have lost two in a row by a combined 13 points since beating Detroit 17-10 on Nov. 1. Boller has thrown for 481 yards and thrown two TDs with three interceptions this season, but hasn’t played since a 38-10 loss to Minnesota on Oct. 11. Both these teams are bad, but seattle should have a field day on the rams defense. The difference is the offensive play for the seahawks. Take the hawks on the road.

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Free Pick Seattle -4

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Kansas City at San Diego 11-29-09

November 29, 2009

The Chiefs pulled off a small miracle last week when they beat the Steelers in overtime, 27-24. QB Matt Cassel had a solid game, 15-of-30 for 248 and 2 TDs, but the most important stat is that he didn’t throw an INT. In his past three games Cassel has thrown four INTs, but in this one he just held onto the ball rather than throw it up for grabs – which could explain the five sacks. Now Kansas City travels to San Diego to face a Chargers team that has won five straight, including a torching of Denver last week, 32-3. QB Philip Rivers wasn’t overly impressive, 17-of-22 for 145 yards and one touchdown, but since QB Kyle Orton was nursing a bad ankle, the Chargers were able to take advantage. RBs LaDainian Tomlinson, 20 carries for 73 yards and 1 TD and Mike Tolbert, seven carries for 58 yards and 1 TD, were the real stars of the game. You might also have to throw in Nate Kaeding, who added four field goals.

With the win, the Chargers took over first place in the AFC West, but will need to keep this winning streak rolling along so Denver stays in its rearview mirror. If there was any thoughts of San Diego looking past its next two opponents (Kansas City and Cleveland), last weekend might have squashed those ideas since Kansas City beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland’s offense looked to have come alive after scoring 37 points on the road in a loss.

The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road. They are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five road games against San Diego. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Chargers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after 2 or more wins. They are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five games at home against the Chiefs. San Diego is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 home games. I like the Chargers to win by 2 tds.

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Free Pick San Diego -13.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Orlando at Milwaukee 11-28-09

November 28, 2009

Orlando (12-4) had a few stumbles while dealing with key injuries and suspensions early in the season, but those absences didn’t stop the Magic from getting off to a hot start. They rebounded from their fourth loss with a 93-76 win at Atlanta on Thursday night, handing the Southeast Division rival Hawks their first home defeat while taking over the best record in the East.

The Magic have had a lot of success against the Bucks with Howard in the lineup, winning seven of the last eight in the series when the three-time All-Star plays. Howard averaged 23.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 3.3 blocked shots while shooting 61.3 percent in three victories over Milwaukee last season. He missed a 98-80 loss at the Bradley Center on April 13 because of a sore left knee.

This season’s Milwaukee team appeared capable of ending its troubles in this series during its hot start, but the Bucks (8-6) have struggled lately. They opened 8-3 but have since dropped three in a row, including a 108-90 loss – their most lopsided of the season at Oklahoma City on Friday night.Milwaukee gave up 17 straight points at the start of the third quarter to make a one-point halftime deficit much larger.

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Free Pick Orlando -6.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Louisville at UNLV 11-28-09

November 28, 2009

The Cardinals (4-0) eased past Appalachian State 80-53 on Monday to win the Hall of Fame Showcase. That victory came after Pitino publicly scrutinized the team’s listless play in tournament wins over East Tennessee and Morgan State over the previous two days.

These teams met at Louisville on New Year’s Eve last season and the Rebels pulled off a 56-55 upset victory. The Cardinals, then ranked 18th, shot 29.6 percent from the field and had a season-low seven assists. They rebounded to win the Big East regular-season and tournament titles, and Pitino is hoping a matchup at Las Vegas will give his team – populated with 10 freshmen and sophomores – some needed experience.

Louisville has won five of nine meetings with UNLV, including a 68-48 victory in its last visit to Las Vegas on Nov. 21, 2007. Samardo Samuels is enjoying a strong start, leading the Cardinals with averages of 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds. The sophomore had only eight field-goal attempts Monday but scored 16 points. Samuels was held to 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting by UNLV last season, and the 6-foot-9 forward was defending Oscar Bellfield when the 6-foot-2 Rebels guard made the go-ahead layup with 16 seconds to play.

The Rebels, seeking their second consecutive 5-0 start, hope another win over Louisville can vault them into the Top 25 for the first time since ending the 2006-07 season at No. 19.  I like Louisville to win this matchup, especially since they lost last year to them.  Look for Louisville to be focused in this one.

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Free Pick Louisville -4

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