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Mississippi at Mississippi State 11-28-09

Another Egg Bowl victory against the Bulldogs would secure second place in the SEC West Division for the 20th-ranked Rebels, who look to remain undefeated in November under coach Houston Nutt on Saturday. Mississippi (8-3, 4-3) beat then-No. 10 LSU 25-23 last Saturday to give it the inside track on second place in the West, which would help it attain a better bowl spot. The game came down to the final play, with the Tigers unable to get the snap off at the Rebels’ 5-yard line as time expired.

Ole Miss was expected to challenge for the SEC title, but lost two of its first five games. The Rebels have since won three straight and five of six. Ole Miss is led by its rushing offense, which ranks second in the conference with 219.5 yards per game and features Dexter McCluster. The senior has 903 yards and six scores on the ground and also has 34 receptions for 412 yards and two TDs. Against LSU, McCluster ran for 148 yards and completed the first pass of his career for a 27-yard score to give the Rebels a 22-17 lead 29 seconds into the final quarter.

Mississippi State, though, has gotten terrible performances from its quarterbacks this season. Tyson Lee and Chris Relf combined to throw for 49 yards and were sacked four times against the Razorbacks. The Bulldogs are averaging 148.8 passing yards with seven TDs and 16 interceptions on the season. That has been tough for Mississippi State to overcome, particularly with its defense struggling. The Bulldogs gave up an average of 31.5 points over their last four games.

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Free Pick Mississippi -7.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Florida St at Florida 11-28-09

Florida was in this very same position last year. With an SEC Championship Game against Alabama just one week away, the Gators clubbed a bowl-bound Florida State team, 45-15. They were 16-point road favorites in that one but this time around, they’re giving close to 25 points at home to their in-state rivals. We all know how porous the Seminole defense has been this year, allowing four touchdowns or more in seven of the 11 games.

However, the Florida offense averaged only 28 ppg in conference play in ’09 after going for 45 ppg a season ago. If the Seminoles can score around 17-21 points, it’s likely they’ll be able to stay within the number. Florida State has won four of its last five games so the team is obviously coming together even without Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The Seminoles are 6-5 SU but just 3-7 ATS this season, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. They are 6-1 to the over in their last seven. The Gators are 11-0 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in ’09 with seven unders in their last nine games. They are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games but just 3-5-1 in their last nine. Florida is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five meetings.

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Free Pick Florida St +24.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Notre Dame at Stanford 11-28-09

Not only could this be the final regular season game that Charlie Weis roams the Irish sidelines, it could also be the last one for quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Three straight defeats have put a damper on a 6-2 start but the Irish always play till the final whistle blows. Their five losses have come by a combined 21 points and they have yet to drop a game by more than a touchdown. Stanford has to be heartbroken after losing the “Big Game” to California, which eliminated the Cardinal from any chance of a Rose Bowl berth.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad is only 3-3 in its last six games, allowing an average of 32 ppg in the process. The perception is that Stanford is the better team but Notre Dame will go on the road and get the victory.

Notre Dame is 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in its last five with four overs over that span. Stanford is 7-4 both SU and ATS this season, 3-1 ATS in its last four with three straight overs. The Cardinal is 5-1 ATS at home this year while the Fighting Irish are 1-2 ATS on the road. Notre Dame is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings.

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Free Pick Notre Dame +10

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Cleveland at Charlotte 11-27-09

The Bobcats (5-9) have the second-best scoring defense in the league, giving up just 88.9 points per game. However, they are averaging only 87.5 – second-fewest. The Bobcats may have trouble extending their winning streak and their run of impressive offensive displays against the Cavaliers (11-4), though. Charlotte has dropped seven straight to Cleveland, averaging 78.3 points in the last four.

Cleveland beat Detroit 98-88 on Wednesday, limiting the Pistons to 39.2 percent shooting. James, averaging 34.2 points in the last five games, finished with 34 points to go along with eight rebounds and seven assists. He scored 12 of his points in the first quarter, and Cleveland had an 18-point halftime lead. Detroit pulled within five points with 1:13 remaining, but James made two free throws and Detroit turned the ball over on the next possession.

James is averaging 26.1 points in his career against Charlotte. The Cavaliers are 16-3 all-time against the Bobcats, and they’ve won their last two trips to Charlotte. They may be in for a tougher time Friday night if the Bobcats’ offense continues to look as good as it did against the Pacers and Raptors.  I like the Cavs big in this one.

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Free Pick Cleveland -4

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Portland at Minnesota 11-27-09

The No. 22 Golden Gophers take on Portland in the semifinals of the 76 Classic on Friday. Minnesota (4-0) advanced with an 82-73 victory over No. 12 Butler on Thursday. After the Golden Gophers won their first three games by an average of 34 points, a matchup with the Bulldogs was expected to be their biggest test. Instead, Minnesota scored the most points allowed by a Butler opponent this season. They shot 50.0 percent overall and were 9 of 19 from 3-point range. The Bulldogs had held their first three opponents to an average of 58.7 points.

While Minnesota may have more offensive options than last season, its reliance on defense remains the same. The Gophers, who gave up 61.6 points per game last season, are allowing only 54 per contest thus far this season while holding opponents to 33.9 percent shooting. They are also among the Division I leaders in forcing turnovers at 23.3 per game. Butler had 21 turnovers on Thursday.

Up next for Minnesota is Portland, which advanced following a 74-47 rout of UCLA on Thursday. The Pilots held the Bruins to 19 first-half points and 32.7 percent shooting for the game.  I like Minnesota in this matchup.

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Free Pick Minnesota -7

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Alabama at Auburn 11-27-09

The No. 2 Crimson Tide (11-0, 7-0 SEC) visit bitter rival Auburn on Friday in the Iron Bowl. Win there, and the games really will keep getting bigger. The next would be against top-ranked Florida for the SEC championship and a shot at the national title.

The Tigers (7-4, 3-4) would love to deal a blow to the Tide’s national title hopes and better their own bowl prospects. Not to mention find some redemption after Alabama emphatically ended Auburn’s six-year Iron Bowl winning streak with a 36-0 thrashing last season.

The game does feature some interesting subplots: Alabama has the nation’s top defense going against Gus Malzahn’s fast-paced offense. Auburn’s defense is giving up more points than anybody in the league. The Tide has a Heisman Trophy candidate in Mark Ingram, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,399 yards. Auburn counters with Ben Tate, the No. 3 rusher with 1,209 yards.

I Like Auburn in a close game.  Alabama might loose a little focus with thier huge game next week.  Take Auburn with the points.

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Free Pick Auburn +10

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Pittsburgh at West Virginia 11-27-09

Pitt has won the last two meetings with West Virginia (7-3, 3-2), including a 13-9 victory in Morgantown in 2007, which kept the then-No. 2 Mountaineers from playing for the national title. Coach Dave Wannstedt acknowledges the Panthers’ 2007 win over the Mountaineers as a turning point for his program. Pittsburgh had come into that game 4-7. In the two years since, the Panthers have gone 18-5, and they have been a consistent presence in the Top 25 this season.

West Virginia, meanwhile, saw coach Rich Rodriguez leave two weeks after that upset defeat. The Mountaineers went 9-4 under Bill Stewart last season and have spent only two weeks in the rankings this season.This is the first time since 2003 that the teams have met with the Panthers in the Top 25 and the Mountaineers unranked.

West Virginia failed in a comeback attempt of its own in a 24-21 loss to Cincinnati on Nov. 13. The Mountaineers scored on Jarrett Brown’s 3-yard touchdown pass to Bradley Starks with 39 seconds remaining, but they were out of timeouts when the Bearcats recovered the onside kick. Friday is West Virginia’s final home game. It’s trying to go undefeated in Morgantown for the first time since 1993.

 I think both defenses will step up and stop the run, which, in my eyes, favors Pitt. A low scoring field position battle with Pitt winning a close one.  Take Pitt on the road.

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Free Pick Pittsburgh -1

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Nevada at Boise State 11-27-09

The sixth-ranked Broncos go for their 12th straight victory when they host the surging Wolf Pack on Friday night. While undefeated, Boise State is running out of time to impress Bowl Championship Series voters. Usually there is only one team from a non-BCS conference that receives a bid for one of the top bowls and the Broncos currently trail No. 4 TCU.

Boise State (11-0, 6-0) could make a good case for moving up this week, though. It faces a Nevada team that has won eight straight and has averaged 55.6 points over the last five games, in large part due to a prolific running game that is the best in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Broncos and Wolf Pack are the only undefeated teams in the WAC and Friday’s winner would earn at least a share of the conference title.

If the last two meetings have anything to do with this match up, expect a very close game with either team strong enough to post the victory. Boise State has not lost a regular season home game since 2001 but that doesn’t mean Nevada has zero chance. Remember, the Wolf Pack came into Bronco Stadium two years ago and took Boise State to four overtimes. This year, both teams are on fire with a combined 19 wins. Nevada has scored 50 points or more in its last three while the Broncos have done the same in their last two. Boise State’s passing game should dominate a porous Nevada secondary but the ‘Pack should be able to run all day on the Broncos the same way Fresno State did over two months ago. The team that has the ball last will most likely win, which sets up nicely for a Wolf Pack cover since they’re getting double-digits.

The Wolf Pack are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS this season, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The Broncos are 11-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in ’09 but just 3-3 ATS in their last six. Boise State is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings vs. Nevada with the last two going over the total.  This should be a close game, but i still think Boise St wins by 2 touchdowns.

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Free Pick Boise State -13.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

Chicago at Utah 11-26-09

Utah looks to bounce back from an ugly home loss Thursday night when it hosts a Chicago Bulls team trying to get back on track on its disappointing road trip.Utah (7-7), which has dropped an average of 7.3 home games during the last three seasons, fell to 4-3 at EnergySolutions Arena with Tuesday’s 104-94 loss to Oklahoma City. The Jazz were showered by boos while getting outscored 31-16 in the third quarter and falling behind by as many as 19 in the fourth.

After opening last season with six consecutive home wins, the Jazz fell to Chicago 101-100 on Nov. 24, 2008. Larry Hugheshit a 22-footer at the buzzer to help the Bulls snap a three-game slide in Salt Lake City. Chicago defeated Utah 106-98 at home Dec. 20 for its third straight victory over the Jazz and first season sweep since 2004-05.

The Bulls (6-7) are hoping for another victory in Utah after falling to 1-3 on their trip with Monday’s 122-98 loss to Portland. Since beating Sacramento 101-87 on Nov. 17, Chicago has been outscored by an average of 19.3 points and outrebounded by 11.0 during its three-game slide.

Utah is playing the third contest of a season-high six-game homestand, while Chicago will end its trip Monday against Milwaukee. I like Utah in this home matchup.

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Free Pick Utah -7.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

West Virginia at Long Beach State 11-26-09

The eighth-ranked Mountaineers are preparing to play their third straight game without Ebanks on Thursday when they face Long Beach State in the opening round of the 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif. Shortly after defeating The Citadel 69-50 on Tuesday, West Virginia (2-0) boarded a plane for Southern California for this tournament. The winner of this game faces either No. 19 Clemson or Texas A&M on Friday, while 12th-ranked Butler, No. 22 Minnesota, UCLA and Portland round out the field.

This will be the first meeting between West Virginia and Long Beach State, the preseason pick to win the Big West. The 49ers (3-1) bounced back from last Thursday’s 82-62 loss to then-unranked Notre Dame with an 81-69 victory over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Saturday.

The 49ers are off to their best start since the 1996-97 team also opened 3-1, but it could be tough to keep it going.Long Beach State dropped both games against Top 25 opponents last season and has lost 13 in a row to ranked foes since defeating then-No. 25 New Mexico State 84-83 on Feb. 24, 1994.

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Free Pick West Virginia -14.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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