LSU at Mississippi 11-21-09

November 21, 2009

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LSU’s conference championship dreams are gone, but it still has lofty goals. Targeting another top-five finish, the 10th-ranked Tigers return to SEC play Saturday when they go for their fifth straight victory at Mississippi.Although a 24-15 loss at then-No. 3 Alabama on Nov. 7 eliminated it from contention for in the Dec. 5 conference championship, LSU is seeking to finish in the top five nationally for the third time in four seasons.

Another big game from senior running back Dexter McCluster could help Mississippi (7-3, 3-3) achieve that goal. McCluster posted program records of 282 rushing yards and 324 all-purpose yards in last week’s 42-17 win over Tennessee.

LSU will be playing Ole Miss for the 98th time. The Tigers have a 55-38-4 record against the Rebels. Ole Miss snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with its 31-13 victory last season.

LSU has won four consecutive games against the Rebels in Oxford. The Tigers’ last defeat on the road against Ole Miss was a 37-31 setback in 1998. LSU has won nine consecutive games in the state of Mississippi – six at Starkville against Mississippi State and four at Oxford against the Rebels. The last defeat in Mississippi came against the Bulldogs (17-16) in 1999.LSU’s running game took a major hit in the loss to the Crimson Tide when leading rusher Charles Scott was lost for the season with a fractured collarbone, but senior Keiland Williams stepped in last Saturday and ran for 116 yards and two TDs. I like Mississippi to pull off the upset against the higher ranked team.

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Free Pick Mississippi -4.5

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Oregon at Arizona 11-21-09

November 21, 2009

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The Ducks (8-2, 6-1) are the league’s only remaining team with one loss in conference play, and they would secure a spot in Pasadena by beating the Wildcats and rival Oregon State. Oregon can make sure the Pac-10 race stays very simple with a win at Arizona on Saturday.

But Arizona (6-3, 4-2) is one of three clubs – along with Stanford and Oregon State – with two Pac-10 defeats, and the Wildcats could also secure their first trip to the Rose Bowl with wins in their final three games. They visit Arizona State and USC after Saturday’s contest.

The Wildcats also likely need to improve their offense if they hope to keep up with the Ducks. Arizona averaged 37.6 points in its first five Pac-10 games before struggling against Cal, totaling season lows in points and rushing yards (73) as starting running back Nic Grigsby was sidelined with a shoulder problem.

Quarterback Nick Foles attempted 41 passes but threw for just 201 yards, his third straight game under 250 after he averaged nearly 400 in meetings with Washington and Stanford in October.

It’s possible Grigsby could return Saturday and the Wildcats also could benefit from playing at home, where they’re 5-0. Oregon lost 34-24 in Tucson on Nov. 15, 2007, but Masoli accounted for 387 yards and five touchdowns in the Ducks’ 55-45 home win last year. The Ducks, seeking their first Rose Bowl bid since 1995, also have a major threat in junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who has run for nine touchdowns and thrown for 11 while leading an offense that averages 37.1 points – ninth-best nationally.

Take Oregon on the road.

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Free Pick Oregon -6

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Dayton at Villanova 11-20-09

November 20, 2009

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After starting the season with a couple of easy victories over lesser opponents at home, Villanova received its first real test in the opening round of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Guard Scottie Reynolds hopes the early challenge can provide something for the team to build on for the rest of the year. The fifth-ranked Wildcats look to carry some momentum from an impressive comeback victory into Friday’s matchup with No. 18 Dayton, which also rallied to win its tournament opener.

Villanova (3-0), which advanced to last season’s Final Four, opened this year by outscoring Fairleigh Dickinson and Pennsylvania by a combined 61 points in winning its first two games, but it struggled Thursday against George Mason in Puerto Rico.

Dayton was hoping to find some success with its perimeter shooting this season, but that hasn’t been the case through two games. The Flyers were 9 of 28 from 3-point range against the Yellow Jackets after going 9 for 27 in the opener.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, are limiting opponents to 28.0 percent (14 of 50) from behind the arc. This is the first meeting between the teams since Dayton’s 80-78 home win Dec. 22, 2002. The Flyers split their four games against ranked opponents last season but have lost 10 straight to top 5 opponents since defeating then-No. 3 DePaul 72-71 on Feb. 18, 1984.

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Free Pick Villanova -5

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Boise St at Utah St 11-20-09

November 20, 2009

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An unbeaten regular season has become almost an annual rite for Boise State, but the team’s strong-armed quarterback could be nearing what would be more uncharted territory for the program. Kellen Moore will try to bolster his Heisman Trophy candidacy and lead the sixth-ranked Broncos to an 11th straight victory when they play their final road game of 2009 against Utah State on Friday night. Moore’s prolific year continued as he led Boise State to a 63-25 drubbing of Idaho on Saturday. The sophomore threw for 299 yards and five touchdowns – four to wide receiver Austin Pettis.

The Broncos were left out of the Bowl Championship Series last season because Utah was unbeaten and ranked higher – and typically, only one team from a non-BCS conference can reach one of the top bowls. This season, that bid seems likely to go to No. 4 TCU, which beat Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year. While his team held steady at No. 6 in the BCS rankings this week, Boise State coach Chris Petersen couldn’t contain his sarcasm.

Boise State will have to play without a pair of minor offensive contributors who are expected to miss the rest of the season. Tight end Richie Brockel injured his left foot against Idaho, while running back Matt Kaiserman broke his right leg after throwing for a touchdown.  Another cupcake game for Boise St. Take them giving alot on the road.

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Free Pick Boise St -23

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Miami at Toronto 11-20-09

November 20, 2009

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The Toronto Raptors are caught in a funk, having lost three straight and five of seven games, and will kick off a three-game homestand tonight versus the Miami Heat at Air Canada Centre.  The Raptors went 1-3 on a four-game road trip and are coming off Wednesday’s 104-91 setback to the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. Chris Bosh posted 32 points and 17 rebounds, while Marco Belinelli added 19 points for the Raptors, who got 10 points and 11 boards from Andrea Bargnani just one night after a 130-112 loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Miami (7-4) has lost three of four after a fast start, with its star guard shooting 32.4 percent (12 for 37) over the last two games – a 100-87 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and a 105-90 defeat at Atlanta the following evening. Wade is averaging 27.6 points but was held to a season-low 15 versus the Hawks, ending a streak of 23 straight regular-season games with at least 20. He is shooting 43.1 percent on the season

Toronto has struggled defensively this season, allowing 107.8 points per game. The Raptors gave up at least 100 points in losing their last three after holding their previous two opponents under 90. The Heat got 42 points, eight assists and six rebounds from Wade to snap a six-game skid against the Raptors with a 108-102 win March 6, the teams’ last meeting.

Toronto won two of three matchups with Miami a season ago, but had its six- game winning streak in the series come to an end with a 108-102 loss on March 6, 2009. Miami has lost four of five trips to Canada.  I L:ike Miami to get out of their funk.

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Free Pick Miami +2.5

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Utah at San Antonio 11-19-09

November 19, 2009

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The Utah Jazz haven’t won in San Antonio in more than a decade, but the way they’re shooting the ball lately, that streak could end Thursday night. Looking for consecutive wins for the first time this season, the Jazz will try to snap a 20-game road losing streak against the Spurs, who could be without two of their star guards as they open their four-game homestand. Before opening its own six-game homestand Saturday, Utah (5-6) will try to win its first game in San Antonio since a 101-87 victory on Feb. 28, 1999.

Rookie point guard Eric Maynor, who averaged 18.5 points and 7.5 assists during Williams’ absence, scored 11 of his 15 points in the fourth quarter and had six assists off the bench against the Raptors. “He continues to impress me,” Williams said. “He’s playing great. He’s composed, he’s making plays. He takes a lot of pressure off a lot of people.” Tony Parker does the same for San Antonio (4-5), but the three-time All-Star point guard is questionable after missing Wednesday’s 99-94 overtime loss to Dallas with a sprained left ankle he aggravated Saturday versus Oklahoma City. “He hasn’t been able to practice since then,” said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, whose team is hoping to avoid its first three-game slide of the season. Manu Ginobili who sat the fourth quarter of the 101-98 loss to the Thunder with a tight left hamstring, made his first start of the season Wednesday but left after the first quarter with a strained left groin. Popovich said after the game that Ginobili would not play Thursday.

I like San Antonio to win this game and cover the spread.

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Free Pick San Antonio -5

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Colorado at Oklahoma St 11-19-09

November 19, 2009

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Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-1) is looking to win its third straight since a 41-14 loss to Texas dealt a major blow to its chances of reaching the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns lead the Cowboys by one game with the tiebreaker going to Texas. While its chances to reach the title game are slim, Oklahoma State will try to finish the season strong. It takes the field Thursday after a 24-17 win over Texas Tech on Saturday in which the team’s quarterback spent the final seconds on the sideline. Robinson collided with a Texas Tech player in the final two minutes. After quickly sitting up, he laid back down and stayed that way for several minutes before being helped to the bench by the team’s trainers.Coach Mike Gundy believes Robinson will be fine and able to play this week, but the shortened recovery time may end up factoring in his decision. If Robinson is unable to go, junior Alex Cate – who has never started a college game – would replace him

Oklahoma State is home for the last time this season. The Cowboys already have two losses this season at Boone Pickens Stadium and they have lost three home games just once in the last seven seasons. It’s doubtful they’ll fall to Colorado here since the Buffaloes could be the worst team in the league. Their running game – a supposed strength heading into the year – has averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry and the quarterbacks have nailed just 52% of their throws. Both numbers rank dead last in the Big 12. Oklahoma State should control this game from start to finish. The only concern with the Cowboys is if they’ll be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Oklahoma. Thankfully, they don’t have to travel after last week’s home win over Texas Tech while Colorado was at Iowa State last Saturday. The Buffaloes are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games.It’ll be 5-13 come Friday morning.

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Free Pick Oklahoma St -17

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North Carolina at Ohio St 11-19-09

November 19, 2009

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North Carolina is undefeated through three games, but the defending national champions know they must improve on their last contest when they face a ranked opponent for the first time this season. The sixth-ranked Tar Heels take on No. 15 Ohio State in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden. After easy wins against Florida International and North Carolina Central, the Tar Heels (3-0) lacked intensity during an 88-77 home win over Valparaiso on Sunday.

The Tar Heels have won their first three games by an average of 24 points. Senior F Deon Thompson leads the team with 17.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG while as a team North Carolina shoots 57% from the field. They will be facing a tough Ohio State squad who are led by Junior G/F Evan Turner. Turner leads the team with 19 PPG, 7 APG, 17 RPG and 2 SPG while the team shoots 50% from the field. The Buckeyes have only played two games so far, but they won by and average of 34 points. This will be a big test with both teams, but Ohio State seems to have the tougher defense, 52 PPG, although Alcorn State and James Madison were its opponents.

Though North Carolina is 9-2 all-time against Ohio State with four straight wins in the series, the Buckeyes are confident facing a program that’s won five in a row and 11 of its last 12 against Big Ten opponents.

“We’re all about competing, competing in practice – an attack mentality,” Turner said. “We’ll be prepared for any situation. It’s another game, another opportunity, another day to get better. (North Carolina) is a new team out there. We’re not really looking at them as national champions. We’re just looking at them as a great team that’s very capable.” This is the teams’ first meeting since then-No. 1 North Carolina won 66-55 at Ohio State on Nov. 28, 2007. Thompson had 14 points for the Tar Heels, while guard Jon Diebler paced the Buckeyes with 19.

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Free Pick Ohio St +1.5

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Miami at Carolina 11-19-09

November 19, 2009

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Carolina and Miami both began 0-3 after winning their respective division titles in 2008, seemingly putting themselves in major peril considering no team has made the playoffs after such a poor start since the 1998 Detroit Lions. Instead, they’ve each won four of six to improve to 4-5. The Panthers’ 28-19 win over Atlanta on Sunday put them one game behind the Falcons, Packers, Eagles and Giants in the wild-card picture, with a game at New York still remaining on their schedule.

The Panthers have survived on their running game, which is third in the league (156.6 yards per game) behind DeAngelo Williams(5.1 yards per carry, seven touchdowns) and Jonathan Stewarts(4.8, six). Williams had 92 yards Sunday and Stewart finished with 82 and two scores. That rushing attack – and Delhomme’s blind-side pass protection – might be in trouble with the loss of Gross, the All-Pro left tackle who broke his ankle against Atlanta. Gross had only missed one game in his seven-year career, but he’s out for the season after undergoing surgery Sunday night.

Not only do the 4-5 Dolphins trail New England by two games for the AFC East lead, they are a full two games out of a Wild Card spot. A loss this evening could pretty much end their postseason hopes. The Panthers, also at 4-5, are in a much better position since the four teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race are all just 5-4. After a miserable 0-3 start, Carolina is 4-2 in its last six games with one of the losses coming by only 10 points in New Orleans. The big story in this game is the absence of Miami running back Ronnie Brown, who suffered season ending foot injury in last week’s two-point win over Tampa Bay. With Brown not playing, it could be a long evening for the offense. Look for Carolina to exploit his loss and walk off with a double-digit victory.

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Free Pick Carolina -3

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Central Michigan at Ball State 11-18-09

November 18, 2009

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How the mighty have fallen. Last year, the Ball State Cardinals came into Kelly/Shorts Stadium 10-0 and ranked as the #14 team in the nation to face an 8-2 Central Michigan squad for a trip to the MAC Championship game. The aftermath was a 31-24 Ball State victory in a back and fourth game that sent the Cardinals to Ford Field for the MAC Championship game.

Fast forward one year and Ball State is missing numerous components from their record setting year, most notably quarterback Nate Davis, who was an early entry into the NFL Draft, and their head coach Brady Hoke, who opted to take the head coaching job at San Diego State. With those pieces gone, the Cardinals found it hard to reload and currently sit at 1-9 (1-5) and faced with the reality that their lone win came over an 0-10 (0-6) Eastern Michigan squad that managed to put just 1535 fans in the seats to witness it. Needless to say, the stakes are different for the 2009 Central Michigan vs. Ball State match-up.

Central Michigan could lose this game and still advance to the MAC Championship because the crucial game comes next week against Northern Illinois. The Chippewas are coming off a huge win over Toledo, a game they scored 56 points. In their two previous contests scoring 48 points or more, they only won by seven at Buffalo and 11 at Western Michigan the following week. Every other conference win came by two touchdowns or more. Ball State has won just one time this season – a two-point squeaker at Eastern Michigan. However, six of its nine defeats came by a touchdown or less. The Cardinals might not keep this one within seven points, but the margin of defeat won’t be by more than two touchdowns either. Take Ball State

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Free Pick Ball State +14

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Butler at Northwestern 11-18-09

November 18, 2009

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The Bulldogs are coming off a 73-62 win over Davidson on Saturday where Gordon Hayward led the way with 17 points. They were out played by Davidson for most of the game, but shooting 20-for-25 from the free-throw line gave them the win despite shooting 41.5% from the field compared to Davidson’s 47.1%. The Wildcats are also coming off a big win, 77-55 over Northern Illinois, where Jeremy Nash led the way with 20 points. Just like Butler, the Wildcats visited the free-throw line a lot in their game where they went 34-for-48. Look for the team that gets to the line more in this one come away with the victory. The last time these teams met, last season, the Bulldogs won by four points at home.

While Butler has designs on crashing the Final Four, Northwestern (1-0) has hopes of erasing the stigma of being the only school from a major conference never to reach the NCAA tournament.

The Wildcats defeated Northern Illinois 77-55 on Friday, but the win came at a costly price with senior swingman Jeff Ryan suffering a torn ACL that ended his season.

Coach Bill Carmody had to absorb another crushing blow Monday when 2008-09 leading scorer and second-team all-Big Ten selection Kevin Coble opted for season-ending surgery to repair a fractured left foot. Coble, who suffered the injury in practice Nov. 10, averaged 15.5 points and 4.8 rebounds as a junior in helping the Wildcats reach the NIT.

With the injuries to Northwestern’s main guys, I think Butler should win this one and cover on the road.

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Free Pick Butler -4.5

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New York at Indiana 11-18-09

November 18, 2009

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The Indiana Pacers will be out to extend their longest  winning streak in more than four years when the surging club returns to Conseco Fieldhouse this evening to battle the downtrodden New York Knicks. Indiana has recovered nicely from an 0-3 beginning to the 2009-10 campaign,  having ripped off five straight victories since that sluggish start. The Pacers maintained their winning ways last night at the expense of the hapless New Jersey Nets, with Danny Granger posting 22 points and seven rebounds to  lead the way in a 91-83 triumph at the IZOD Center.  Roy Hibbert tied a career high with 19 points and added 10 rebounds as Indiana dealt the Nets their 11th straight loss to start this season. Dahntay Jones contributed 17 points for the Pacers, who jumped out to a 31-21 lead after one quarter and held New Jersey off the rest of the way.

The Pacers have won six of the last eight meetings with the Knicks, who are off to the worst 10-game start in their history. The Knicks haven’t been very competitive of late, averaging 94.7 points over the last six games after scoring 109.3 during the previous four. They’re also 0-3 on the road, where they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points.

The Knicks have also struggled out of the gates this season, but unlike Indiana, they’ve yet to bounce back. New York suffered its sixth loss in a row with Friday’s 121-107 home setback to Golden State, and the team’s current 1-9 record is its worst after 10 games in franchise history.  The Knicks look very bad right now, and i dont see things getting any better.

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Free Pick Indiana -6.5

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Oklahoma City at Miami 11-17-09

November 17, 2009

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The Miami Heat have been doing their best to take advantage of a home-heavy stretch to start the season, though they recently needed some last-second heroics from Dwayne Wade to escape a loss to one of the league’s worst teams. The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be proving they no longer belong in that category. The Heat try to close their five-game homestand with a fourth win Tuesday night against the Thunder, who are seeking the franchise’s first three-game road winning streak since March 2007.

Miami (7-2) has played seven of its first nine games at American Airlines Arena, and it’s won five of those as it tries to assert itself as a contender along with Atlanta and Orlando in the Southeast Division. The Heat suffered through their worst defensive game thus far in a 111-104 loss to Cleveland on Thursday, then followed that with their worst offensive performance Saturday against New Jersey. Miami shot a season-low 39.3 percent but was bailed out by Wade’s 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left to win 81-80, sending the Nets to 0-10.

Oklahoma City’s first 10 games have been a vast improvement from its first season after relocating from Seattle. The Thunder began last season 1-15 in their new home, and didn’t win their fifth game until Jan. 6. They won only eight road games last season, but already have three in 2009-10 after beating the Los Angelas Clippers and San Antonio during a three-game trip last week. Coach Scott Brooks’ team returned home Sunday, however, and let the Clippers get some revenge. Kevin Durant scored a season-high 40 points, but Los Angeles rallied in the fourth quarter to win 101-93.

The Thunder haven’t won three in a row on the road since March 18-28, 2007, while the franchise was still in Seattle. I like Miami in this game.

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Free Pick Miami -5

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Temple at Georgetown 11-17-09

November 17, 2009

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Georgetown’s Greg Monroe had a successful homecoming in the season opener. Now, the rest of the Hoyas hope to experience a happy homecoming of their own. Monroe leads No. 23 Georgetown into its home opener at the Verizon Center on Tuesday afternoon, when the Hoyas will face two-time defending Atlantic 10 champion Temple. Monroe, who grew up in the New Orleans area, had 18 points and 11 rebounds Friday to lead Georgetown to a 74-58 season-opening victory at Tulane. Picking up where he left off after a freshman season in which he averaged 12.7 points and had four double-doubles, the 6-foot-11 center thrived in front of his own cheering section behind the visiting bench.

The last time they lost their season opener was also the last time they faced Temple. The Owls beat Georgetown 75-57 in the nation’s capital Nov. 22, 2004, spoiling John Thompson III’s debut coaching the Hoyas. The victory was Temple’s third straight over Georgetown, and gave the Owls a 21-13 edge in the all-time series.

The Owls are 3-0 all-time at the Verizon Center. Though Temple is coming off consecutive Atlantic 10 titles and 20-win seasons, the Owls are a team in transition following the graduation of star guard and leading scorer Dionte Christmas. They looked ready to pick up the slack in their season opener Saturday, shooting 50 percent from the field in a 76-56 victory at Delaware.

Sophomore guard Juan Fernandez had 14 points for Temple in his first career start, while senior Luis Guzman and junior Craig Williams scored eight apiece. Williams, who came off the bench in the opener after starting seven games in 2008-09, shot 3 for 3 but sprained his knee on his final field-goal attempt. He’s listed as day to day and is uncertain for this contest. Temple is seeking its third straight 2-0 start. Georgetown is looking to open with consecutive victories for the fifth straight year. Temple should play close enough to cover the spread.

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Free Pick Temple +9

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Miami(Ohio) at Kentucky 11-16-09

November 16, 2009

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Behind one of its talented freshmen, Kentucky played well in its season opener. Things could go even better when its top recruit finally takes the court. Heralded point guard John Wall makes his much-anticipated debut when the fourth-ranked Wildcats host Miami of Ohio on Monday night. Hailing from Raleigh, N.C., Wall was considered to be the top high school player in the country last year, but he was forced to miss Kentucky’s 75-59 win over Morehead State on Friday as part of an NCAA suspension for accepting improper benefits from his former AAU coach.

Though the Wildcats had little trouble winning Calipari’s Kentucky debut, there’s room for improvement. They went 4 for 19 from 3-point range and turned the ball over 24 times, including seven by Bledsoe.

They’ll try to remedy that when they face Miami for the first time since beating the RedHawks 57-46 on Nov. 11, 2006.

Though Kentucky has dominated this series, Calipari is cautious about facing Miami coach Charlie Coles’ deliberate offense and aggressive defense that held opponents to 58.9 points while going 17-13 last season.

“It’s another good team where the team can beat us,” Calipari told Kentucky’s official Web site. “It’s not a game where you show up and you win anyway.”

Senior Kenny Hayes had 17 points for Miami in its opener Friday, but the RedHawks blew a five-point halftime lead and fell 82-71 at Towson. Hayes averaged 13.9 points, but was limited to eight games due to a wrist injury last season. Miami, picked to finish fourth in the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, has lost 12 in a row against Top 25 opponents dating to a 73-67 win over then-No. 10 Boston College on Dec. 20, 2001.  All Kentucky in this one.

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Free Pick Kentucky -18-5

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Portland at Atlanta 11-16-09

November 16, 2009

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The Atlanta Hawks have yet to be challenged at home, winning their first four games inside Philips Arena by an average of 17.5 points while cruising to an early lead in the Southeast Division. The Portland Trail Blazers, though, have been nearly as flawless on the road. The Trail Blazers haven’t lost since they were beaten by Atlanta nearly two weeks ago, and they’ll look to complete a perfect five-game road trip and win a seventh consecutive game overall Monday night while trying to deny the surging Hawks a fifth straight victory.

Coach Nate McMillan wasn’t pleased with Portland’s ball rotation or defense in a 97-91 home loss to Atlanta (8-2) on Nov. 3, so he decided to stick free agent acquisition Andre Miller into the starting lineup three days later against San Antonio. Miller’s numbers as a starter haven’t been spectacular – 12.3 points, 4.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game – but his impact has been felt. The Blazers (8-3) have won their last six games by an average of 14.3 points, with the biggest improvement coming on the defensive end. Portland was giving up a respectable 93.2 points per game through its first five contests, but has cut that average to 82.0 points since Nov. 6, limiting opponents to 39.5 percent shooting.

As the Blazers seek their first seven-game winning streak since a 13-game run from Dec. 3-28, 2007, though, they’ll be without Travis Outlaw Fourth on the team in scoring at 9.9 points per game, Outlaw suffered a stress fracture in his left foot Saturday and could be out six to eight weeks. Outlaw had 19 points off the bench in the loss to Atlanta, but he wasn’t the most impressive reserve to see key minutes. Jamal Crawford had a game-high 27 points for the Hawks, and has averaged 17.7 points while shooting 47.6 percent – seven percent better than his career average. Crawford had 21 points Saturday and Joe Johnson scored a team-high 26 in a 121-98 win over New Orleans.

The last time Atlanta won its first five home games was in 1997-98, when it opened 7-0 en route to the franchise’s last 50-win season. Along with the addition of Crawford, the biggest difference so far has been the Hawks’ interior play. They lead the league with an average of 54.0 points in the paint – 20.5 more than 29th-place Portland. This is a payback game for Portland.

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Free Pick Portland +3

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Baltimore at Cleveland 11-16-09

November 16, 2009

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The Baltimore Ravenswere feeling good about themselves after a performance that caused Cleveland to bench Brady Quinn. As it turns out, most teams have had an easy time making Browns quarterbacks look bad. Having struggled since that contest, the Ravens hope to spoil Quinn’s return as the starter Monday night in a rematch with the woeful Browns. After opening with three wins, Baltimore (4-4) hardly appears set to make a run at a second straight AFC championship game appearance. The Ravens lost three straight before defeating previously unbeaten Denver 30-7 on Nov. 1, only to lose 17-7 to Cincinnati last Sunday.

Harbaugh seemed to have his team on the right track following its third straight win, 34-3 over Cleveland on Sept. 27. It was the most dominant effort of the season for the Ravens, who intercepted Cleveland quarterbacks four times. Quinn, who began the season as the starter for the Browns (1-7), went 6 for 8 for 34 yards and an interception before being pulled at halftime in favor of Derek Anderson. Anderson went on to throw three picks and start the next five games, but he has the NFL’s lowest quarterback rating (36.2) and coach Eric Mangini has decided to go back to Quinn as his starter following the Browns’ bye week. Anderson had a 6-for-17 performance with two interceptions in a 30-6 loss to Chicago on Nov. 1. Quinn came off the bench to complete 1 of 3 passes in his first action since being benched 10 quarters into the season. Mangini said he would like to stick with Quinn for the rest of the season, and has been impressed with his work ethic since being demoted. Baltimore’s defense, however, hasn’t been as dominant this season. The Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 39 consecutive games before allowing three in their last four contests. Baltimore gave up a total of 369 yards versus the Bengals and has allowed more than 400 three times, something it hadn’t done since 2006. The Ravens have fallen two games behind AFC North leaders Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, though the playoffs are still well within their reach if they can build some momentum.

Flacco set a career high with 342 yards in this season’s first matchup with Cleveland, and topped that mark with 385 in a 33-31 loss to Minnesota on Oct. 18.

Cleveland is last in total defense, allowing 409.1 yards a contest, and has lost its leading tackler for the second time this season. Eric Barton was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with an unspecified injury, leaving the Browns without their two starting inside linebackers. This game wont be close take Baltimore on the road.

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Free Pick Baltimore -10.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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East Carolina at Tulsa 11-15-09

November 15, 2009

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In early December of last year, the East Carolina football team traveled to Tulsa, Okla., as a massive underdog. Today, the Pirates make the same trip as defending Conference USA champions in search of a second title.  With three-fourths of the regular season elapsed, the 5-4 Pirates begin a critical three-game stretch at 8:15 tonight in Tulsa that will decide whether or not they will represent the East Division in the C-USA title game for a second straight year.  ECU lost last week to Virginia Tech, but the Pirates were on a two-game win streak in C-USA before that and stand alone atop the East at 4-1. Tulsa, meanwhile, lost a wild affair to Houston, 46-45, last weekend and fell to 2-3 in the West.  The Pirates practiced through the rain-soaked remnants of a tropical storm through the middle of the week, and ECU head coach Skip Holtz said it was a tough assignment for the scout team to replicate the up-tempo offense of Tulsa.

The Tulsa attack is fueled by Texas transfer quarterback G.J. Kinne, a sophomore who has already proven to be a threat through the air (1,832 yards, 15 touchdowns) and on the ground (277 yards, four TD). Against Houston, Kinne went for 334 pass yards, 100 rush yards and four total touchdowns.

Kinne’s primary pass targets are sophomore Damaris Johnson (39 receptions, 711 yards, two TD) and senior Slick Shelley (24-458-4). Johnson’s 209 all-purpose yards per game rank him No. 1 in the nation entering tonight’s kickoff.  Kinne is the Golden Hurricane’s second leading rusher behind junior Jamad Williams (304 yards, TD).  On the other side, senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney (1,682 yards, eight TD) represents an ECU offense still hoping for big plays and likely needing them today.  While the Pirates’ rush attack has been bolstered by senior Dominique Lindsay (639 yards, three TD), the hot-and-cold pass attack will need to be better tonight than it has for much of the season.

Tulsa has won five of the eight meetings between the two programs, but are an even 2-2 at home against the Pirates.  The Hurricane has played in three of the last four C-USA championship games, beating UCF in 2005 before losing to the Knights in 2007 and the Pirates in 2008. The games weather report is for a lot of rain, which i think should favor East Carolina.

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Free Pick East Carolina +4

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Valparaiso at North Carolina 11-15-09

November 15, 2009

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With its top four scorers gone, young North Carolina is looking for any sort of consistent offense. So far, Marcus Ginyard has been the Tar Heels’ best option. Ginyard matched his career high with 17 points in the sixth-ranked Tar Heels’ latest victory, and he’ll look to keep them rolling when they host Valparaiso on Sunday. Ginyard’s all-around game caused coach Roy Williams to make him a starter for all 39 games during North Carolina’s 2007-08 run to the Final Four. He was limited to three games last season due to a stress fracture in his left foot, but a medical redshirt gave the senior one more year in Chapel Hill.

Ginyard has taken advantage of the opportunity as the Tar Heels (2-0) work to overcome the departures of Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson and Danny Green. Ginyard had 12 points in an 88-72 win over Florida International on Monday, then scored 17 in an 89-42 rout of North Carolina Central on Wednesday. Ginyard, a career 43.5 percent shooter, went 12 of 17 from the field in the first two games, an improvement Williams credits to an offseason’s worth of work on his jumper.

North Carolina beat Valparaiso (0-1) in each of the past two seasons, taking the most recent matchup 85-63 in Chicago on Dec. 20 behind 25 points from Hansbrough and 12 from Thompson. The Crusaders were tied for 299th in the nation with 61.3 points per game last season, but looked better offensively in their season debut. They couldn’t defend, though, allowing Ball State to shoot 57.8 percent in an 88-78 road loss Friday. Sophomore guard Brandon Wood, who sat out last season after transferring from Southern Illinois, led the way with 25 points in his Valparaiso debut. Forward Cory Johnson, an Iowa State transfer, had 21.

The Crusaders haven’t beaten a ranked team since knocking off then-No. 13 Mississippi 70-69 in the first round of the 1998 NCAA tournament, winning on current assistant coach Bryce Drew’s buzzer-beater.  Look for North Carolina to start building some chemistry together, and win big at home.

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Free Pick North Carolina -22

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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Dallas at Detroit 11-15-09

November 15, 2009

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Short-handed for most of the first three weeks of the season, the Detroit Pistons have taken advantage of a soft schedule to win three straight. Their ability to overcome their injury problems will likely face a stiffer challenge with the Dallas Mavericks coming to town. Likely without two of their top players again, the Pistons look to extend their streak Sunday night against the Mavericks, winners of four of the teams’ last five meetings.

Detroit (5-4) has played most of the season without Richard Hamilton (ankle) and Tayshaun Prince (back) and dropped four of its first six with its two longest-tenured players sidelined. The Pistons, though, have rebounded with three consecutive victories by taking advantage of matchups with struggling Philadelphia, Charlotte and Washington. Offseason acquisitions Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have been integral to Detroit’s recent success. Gordon is averaging 24.7 points and shooting 51.8 percent from the field during the winning streak, and Villanueva is averaging 23.7 points and shooting 60.0 percent over that same stretch. Gordon had 29 points and Villanueva added 25 as the Pistons beat the Wizards 106-103 on Saturday after trailing 95-89 with 5:04 to play.

Regardless, the Pistons could use a scoring boost from someone to keep up with the Mavericks (6-3). Dallas has won four of the teams’ last five meetings, shooting 54.5 percent from the field in those victories, which have come by an average of 10.8 points. The Mavericks have also won six of 10 at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Dirk Nowitzki averaged 28.0 points and shot 60.0 percent from the field as Dallas swept the two-game season series with the Pistons in 2008-09. Nowitzki was held to five points in a quiet first half Friday. After getting whistled for a technical foul following arguments with two Minnesota players five minutes into the third quarter, however, Nowitzki scored 13 points, grabbed five rebounds and blocked three shots in the next seven minutes to put Dallas in control en route to the 89-77 win.

Even if Nowitzki can replicate that performance, the Pistons have to feel good about their newcomers’ recent history against the Mavericks. Gordon averaged 31.5 points and shot 53.8 percent in two games against Dallas last season, while playing for Chicago. Villanueva, with Milwaukee at the time, averaged 28.5 points and shot 56.4 percent in two games. Dallas Offense is very powerful, take the road team here.

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Free Pick Dallas -3.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor

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