College Football Pick Illinois at Fresno State 12-3-10

November 30, 2010

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Illinois Fighting Illini at Fresno State Bulldogs

Friday December 3, 2010 10:15 PM EST

Line: Illinois -5.5

Illinois has struggled in their last 3 games as they are 1-2. They took advantage of a hurt Northwestern team 2 weeks ago with a 48-27 win on the road. Fresno State took advantage of a traveling Idaho team last weekend with a 23-20 win.

Stats to consider:

Illinois Fighting Illini:

  • Illinois is 6-5 with a 4-4 Big Ten record.
  • They are 2-2 on the road.
  • Points against per game: 24.2 (53rd)
  • Points for per game: 32.9 (29th)
  • Passing yards a game: 149.1 (112th)
  • Rushing yards a game: 235.5 (13th)

Fresno State Bulldogs:

  • The Bulldogs are 7-4 with a 5-3 WAC record.
  • They are 4-2 at home.
  • Points against per game: 29.7 (82nd)
  • Points for per game: 30.5 (44th)
  • Passing yards a game: 206.2 (68th)
  • Rushing yards a game: 165.8 (43rd)

What to watch for:

  • Illinois Junior RB Mikel Leshoure has rushed for 1,371 yards and 13 TDs. He has 175 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Just last week Leshoure rushed for 330 yards and a TD.
  • Illinois Freshman QB Nathan Scheelhaase has passed for 1,522 yards 16 TDs and 8 Ints. He has also rushed for 684 yards and another TD.
  • Bulldogs Sophomore RB Robbie Rouse has rushed for 1,097 yards and 8 TDs. He broke his hand a 2 weeks ago but played with the injury last week and rushed 12 times for 83 yards, a 6.9 average.
  • Fresno Senior QB Ryan Colburn has thrown for 2,225 yards 18 TDs and 9 Ints. Colburn has thrown 0 TDs and 2 Ints in the last 2 weeks combined.

This is a tough football pick. Illinois has been playing pretty good football as of late even with 2 loses in 3 weeks. Both loses were by 4 points or less, and one was on the road. Fresno State got pounced on by Boise State 2 weeks ago 51-0 in Boise. They didn’t bounce back the way they would have liked to but got the win. With Robbie Rouse possibly hindered by a broken hand, I think that Illinois can get it done. They also have the better defense which could be the difference in this game.

Free College Football Pick: Illinois -5.5

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Written by Kasey Scott · Filed Under Free College Football Picks 

College Football Pick Miami (Ohio) at Northern Illinois 12-3-10

November 30, 2010

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Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies

Friday December 3, 2010 7:00 PM EST

Line: Northern Illinois -17.5

The Mac championship features 2 teams with winning streaks. Northern Illinois has won 9 straight coming into their season finale at home. Miami of Ohio has won 4 straight and will be looking to on a high note.

Stats to consider:

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks:

  • The RedHawks are 8-4 with a 7-1 MAC record.
  • They are 3-3 on the road.
  • Points against per game: 23.6 (50th)
  • Points for per game: 20.1 (104th)
  • Passing yards a game: 243.4 (40th)
  • Rushing yards a game: 96.6 (114th)

Northern Illinois Huskies:

  • The Huskies are 10-2 with an 8-0 MAC record.
  • They are 5-0 at home.
  • Points against per game: 18.5 (16th)
  • Points for per game: 39.3 (11th)
  • Passing yards a game: 172.8 (96th)

What to watch for:

  • RedHawks Sophomore QB Zac Dysert has thrown for 2,406 yards 13 TDs and 13 Ints. Dysert will not play in this game and should hinder the Miami offense. He is replaced by Freshman QB Austin Boucher. Boucher has thrown for 498 yards 3 TDs and only 1 Int.
  • RedHawks Senior RB Thomas Merriweather has rushed for 736 yards and 8 TDs. He has rushed for over 140 yards in each of the last 2 weeks with 2 TDs combined.
  • The Huskies have been lead by Senior RB Chad Spann who has rushed for 1,239 yards and 20 TDs.
  • Huskies Junior QB Chandler Harnish has rushed for 1,949 yards 17 TDs and 5 Ints. He has rushed for 761 yards and 5 ITDs.

All sports picks revolve around the important positions. QB is arguably the most important football position and the RedHawks will be without their starting QB. With them having a Freshman starting QB, this Northern Illinois defense should thrive as they rank 11th in points against. The Huskies also have the much better offense and should be able to put up a 30 spot.

Free College Football Pick: Northern Illinois -17.5

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Written by Kasey Scott · Filed Under Free College Football Picks 

NBA Pick San Antonio at Golden State 11-30-10

November 30, 2010

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San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

Tuesday November 30, 2010 7:30 PM EST

Line: San Antonio -3.5

The Spurs are coming off a huge win at New Orleans 109-95 on Sunday. They will be looking to start another winning streak at a very tough road venue. The Warriors snapped a 5 game losing streak with a 104-94 win at Minnesota on Saturday.

Stats to consider:

San Antonio Spurs:

  • The Spurs are 14-2 with a 7-0 road record.
  • Points allowed per game: 98.9 (14th)
  • Points scored per game: 107.2 (3rd)
  • Rebounds per game: 42.1 (10th)
  • Assists per game: 23.1 (7th)

Golden State Warriors:

  • The Warriors are 8-9 with a 5-2 home record.
  • Points allowed per game: 105.8 (26th)
  • Points scored per game: 101.6 (8th)
  • Rebounds per game: 41.8 (12th)
  • Assists per game: 21.8 (11th)

What to watch for:

  • The Spurs Big 3 doesn’t get much notice. SG Manu Ginobili leads the way with 21.6 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 1.81 SPG. PG Tony Parker looks healthy as he has averaged 17.9 PPG, 7.4 APG and 1.81 SPG. C Tim Duncan still has it as he has averaged 14 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 1.8 BPG.
  • The Warriors also have what you could call a Big 3 as well. SG Monta Ellis has had an MVP year as he leads the squad with 24.9 PPG. He has chipped in 51. APG and 2.6 SPG. PG Stephen Curry is second on the team with 20.1 PPG. He leads the team with 5.8 APG and is second with 2.2 SPG. C David Lee appears that he is back healthy. He has averaged 13.8 PPG and 10.7 RPG.

The Spurs are the only team in the NBA to not lose a road game this season, making this a tough sports pick. The Warriors are a much better team with C David Lee as they started out hot earlier this season and as soon as he went down the Warriors lost 5 straight. The fact that the Spurs beat the only team that had an undefeated home record on Sunday makes me think that the sky is the limit for this Spurs team. I think they will get it done but feel much more safe taking the over in this one.

Free NBA Pick: Over 215

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Written by Kasey Scott · Filed Under Free NBA Picks 

NBA Basketball New Jersey at New York 11-30-10

November 30, 2010

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New Jersey Nets (6-11) vs. New York Knicks (9-9)

Wednesday, November 30th, 2010 7:30PM EST

Line: New York -5

Overview:

The Nets are 2-7 on the road while the Knicks are 2-5 when playing at home. Devin Harris leads New Jersey in the scoring department with 18.2 points per game this season, 2nd-year center Brook Lopez is averaging a steady 18.2 points per game for the team also. The Knicks have seen most of their scoring done by their franchise power forward, Amare Stoudemire, who’s averaging 23.4 points a game this season.

Keys to the Game:

-          New Jersey is coming off a 2-point win over the Blazers on Sunday, the team saw 25 points and eight assists from their point guard, Devin Harris. Kris Humphries led the team in boards with eight.

-          The Knicks went into overtime on Sunday against the Pistons, and came out with a 9-point victory. Amare Stoudemire broke out for 37 points and 15 rebounds for the team.

-          The Knicks are fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 106.8 points per game this season. They have won six out of their last seven games; an impressive feat for this ambitious squad.

Game Forecast:

The Knicks are come off a crucial win against Detroit in their last outing. The Nets are second-last in the league in scoring, with 92.9 points per game, they also struggle in moving the ball around the floor on offense. Look for the Knicks to find a definite win here while playing in New York.

Free NBA Basketball Picks: New York -5

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Written by Daniel Ramos · Filed Under Free NBA Picks 

Free NFL Pick: San Francisco at Arizona 11-29-2010

November 29, 2010

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Monday November 29th, 2010 8:30 PM EST

Line: San Francisco -2

Overview:

Here we are in week 11 and the Cardinals and 49ers are both a miserable 3-7. Both teams have shown flashes of what they could be if they put it together, but poor quarterback play and an underachieving defense puts them tied for last place. That being said, the winner of this game will move to 4-7, putting them one game out of first place in the NFC West.

Keys to the Game:

  • Frank Gore needs to get a lot of carries. Frank Gore always does well against the Cardinals and on Monday Night Football. When Gore does well, the entire offense clicks. Troy Smith showed last week that his game is obviously lacking in some areas. Goire will need to have a big day, which will be more difficult with two rookies on the field and two 49ers offensive linemen, Eric Heitman and Joe Staley, sidelined with broken legs.
  • How bad will the Cardinals be on offense? Larry Fitzgerald has been improving lately, but he still hasn’t taken over games like he did when Kurt Warner was there. The Cardinals will have a tough time running the ball, as Parick Willis leads a defense that is built to stop the run. The Cardinals are splotchy on offense and will need to limit mistakes in order to make this one close.
  • The Cardinals need to keep Troy Smith contained. Last week, Troy Smith had a tough game against the Buccaneers. The Bucs kept Smith contained in the pocket, which didn’t allow him to extend plays and get the ball down the field. Troy Smith got the start over Alex Smith because he showed he could get the ball to Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore. The Cardinals need to be aggressive on the outside with their pass rush and contain Troy Smith within the confines of the pocket. Joey Porter is going to have to have a big day for the Cardinals.
  • The 49ers defense needs to focus on the run. If the Cardinals get their run game going, they will be less apt to put the ball in the air, where they make mistakes. Last week, they allowed the Bucs to pound the football tirelessly. The 49ers have the personnel to shut down the run game, but they can get caught up in playing safe and making plays five yards down field, rather than at the line of scrimmage.
  • Taylor Mays should be back in the lineup. Mays has done everything the 49ers have asked him to do. He might be shaky in coverage, but the 49ers need his sense of urgency on defense. He is a great tackling safety and he has been making plays this year. The 49ers needed to make changes after the slow start, but punishing Mays for doing everything they have called on him to do is unfair. The best 11 should be on the field and Taylor Mays is one of the best 11.

Key Matchup:

Troy Smith Vs. Derek Anderson

  • Troy Smith looked like he had complete command of the offense in his first two games. While a regression was obviously anticipated, the lack luster performance against Tampa Bay has fans wondering if they will ever find a legitimate starting quarterback. I anticipate he will get back on track this week. He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, but he holds onto the ball far too long. The offensive line isn’t good enough to hang onto the ball and wait for things to develop.
  • Derek Anderson is one of those quarterbacks that fans have to hold their breath every single time he drops back to pass. Anderson still struggles to utilize his targets and he has melt down potential. The winner of this quarterback battle will likely win the game. It is likely both will struggle, but whoever struggles less could come away with the victory. Playing mistake free and allowing the other to self distruct could lead to a victory.

Wrap Up:

The Cardinals have dropped five games in a row. While the 49ers certainly have nothing to brag about at this point in the season, they have won two of their last three games and three of their last five. Both of these teams are definitely in panic mode at this point. They need a win on Monday Night to allow them any shot at creeping into the playoff talks. Both teams are obviously vulnerable. While it’s obviously the worst Monday Night matchup of the year, someone is still going to cover. I’m taking the 49ers, because the Cardinals don’t look they are going to be able to get out of their downward spiral.

Free NFL Pick: San Francisco -2

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Written by Kyle Vassalo · Filed Under Free NFL Picks 

Free NBA Basketball Pick Milwaukee at Utah 11-29-10

November 29, 2010

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Milwaukee Bucks (6-10) vs. Utah Jazz (12-5)

Monday, November 29th, 2010 9:05PM EST

Line: Utah -7.5

Overview:

The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a close, 3-point win over the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday, they will look on to take a Utah team with only five losses this season. The Utah Jazz managed to confidently beat down the Clippers by 12 points on Sunday, they are averaging 100.7 points this season.

Keys to the Game:

-          Jazz point guard, Deron Williams has been tearing it up on all sides of the floor for Utah this season. The five-year-vet is averaging 21.7 points, 9.9 assists and 1.3 steals so far this year.

-          The Milwaukee Bucks are fifth in the league in rebounding, averaging 43.9 boards this season. But they are last in the league in both points and assists per game this season. Andrew Bogut’s scoring has dropped this season, averaging just 11.6 points per game, but the center has been able to clean the glass with his average of 10.9 boards.

-          After missing out on the voting polls for the 2011 All-Star game, Jazz power forward Paul Millsap had 15 points and 3 assists in his last game. He’s currently averaging 19.2 points, alongside 8.9 rebounds for the team.

Game Forecast:

The Utah Jazz have been a tough team to encounter while on the road this season. The Milwaukee Bucks will need more consistent shooting from their point guard, Brandon Jennings, but they will also need to figure out how to slow down Utah’s streaky offense that can create gaping leads; the Jazz win this one easily behind their front court play.

Free NBA Basketball Picks: Milwaukee +7

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Written by Daniel Ramos · Filed Under Free NBA Picks 

Free NBA Basketball Pick New Orleans at Oklahoma City 11-29-10

November 29, 2010

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New Orleans Hornets (12-4) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (11-6)

Monday, November 29th, 2010 7:30PM EST

Line: Oklahoma City -5.5

Overview:

The Hornets are coming off a defeat to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, they will look go back home to take on the tough Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Durant is averaging 28.1 points per game this season for Oklahoma City. His teammate, Russell Westbrook leads the team in both assists and steals so far this season.

Keys to the Game:

-          Russell Westbrook is currently dishing out an average of 8.3 assists per game this season. He’s also been able to play some tenacious defense this year too, averaging 2 steals a game this season.

-          Chris Paul has done well to lead the Hornets to such a polished record. Despite losing three out of their last four games, Paul has been able to average 16.6 points, 10.3 assists and 3 steals a game for the Hornets.

-          Oklahoma City ranks seventh in the league in scoring, averaging 102.9 points per game. While the Hornets number one defense is only allowing 91.1 points per game this season.

Game Forecast:

The Hornets are slowing starting to slip up, their recent losses have come to the Clippers, Utah and the Spurs. Expect the Hornets to provide a stronger effort to avoid falling back into mediocrity in the Western Conference. Thunder have this game in their hands to come out with a big win over a credible team.

Free NBA Basketball Picks: New Orleans +5.5

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Written by Daniel Ramos · Filed Under Free NBA Picks 

Free NBA Basketball Pick Washington at Miami 11-29-10

November 28, 2010

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Washington Wizards (5-10) vs. Miami Heat (9-8)

Monday, November 29th, 2010 7:30PM EST

Line: Miami -10.5

Overview:

The Miami Heat are 4-6 in their last ten games, the team hasn’t been able to get it together on either sides of the court. LeBron James leads the team in scoring (23.4), assists (7.9), and steals (1.7) in this early season, the Heat are still looking for some sync in their offense between their three big stars. Washington is led by rookie, John Wall. The slick point guard is averaging 18 points and 9.1 assists this season.

Keys to the Game:

-          Washington is also 4-6 in their last ten games, the team will be looking to find their first road win of the season against a scrambled-up Miami squad. The team’s big man, Javel McGee is averaging 8.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks for the team.

-          The Miami Heat are ranked 7th in offense and 5th on defense this season, despite their recent rough play. The Wizards are in the lower part of the league’s ranking in both offense (25th) and defense (24).

-          Miami’s starting point guard, Carlos Arroyo has been benefitting from the attention the star players have been getting from opposing defenses. Arroyo is currently shooting 62% from the three-point line this season, while averaging a steady 7.5 points per game within 22 minutes of play in each game.

Game Forecast:

The Miami Heat should be able to find their mismatches against the Wizards. Washington is a team led by streaky offensive players, while Miami has the ability to penetrate the ball inside pretty much at will with their slashers. James Jones, Carlos Arroyo and Eddie House should all get their respective open looks during the stretch of this game, but Miami won’t cover the spread.

Free NBA Basketball Picks: Washington +10

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Written by Daniel Ramos · Filed Under Free NBA Picks 

Free NFL Pick: San Diego at Indianapolis 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday November 28th, 2010 8:30 PM EST

Line: Indianapolis -3

Overview:

The Chargers and Colts find themselves in an unfamiliar position at this time of year. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While panic mode may not be set in for either team, both teams know exactly what is at stake in this game. The 5-5 Chargers can’t afford to slip to 5-6, risking being two games back from 1st place. The Colts are tied for first, but the Jaguars have the tie breaker over them. They will look to persevere through the home stretch of the season and hope the Jaguars fall by the wayside.

Keys to the Game:

  • Peyton Manning is seeing the ill effects of having a slew of scrub receivers and slash players make up his offense. The inability for his targets to make easy catches and make big plays has cost them two of the last four games. Anyone in a Manning offense can acquire numbers, but Manning can’t consistently win by himself. Unless Jacob Tamme and Blair White can have a Dallas Clark/ Austin Collie impact, the Colts pass game isn’t going to be enough to compensate for their terrible run game.
  • This is going to be a shoot out. Philip Rivers leads the number one passing offense in the league. Much like Manning, Rivers has had to make the most out of new faces on offense. The Chargers have been banged up this season, but Rivers manages to get it done regardless of who is on the field. Both quarterback’s success adds to the significance their role has on their respective teams.
  • The Chargers apply pressure from everywhere. Shaun Phillips has become Shawne Merriman reincarnated and Antonio Garay and Kevin Burnett pitching in, the Chargers can bring down opposing quarterbacks in a number of different packages. It is unclear how they will handle putting pressure on Manning. It is widely believed that when you pressure Manning, it gives him an advantage. If Manning recognizes the blitz, even his lack luster targets can make plays.
  • Mike Tolbert is coming off a huge game against Denver, who has a run defense that resembles the Colts run defense. If the Colts don’t do anything to sure up their run defense, Manning will be in an even more difficult position. When the Colts allow over 30 points, as they have done twice this year, Manning is asked to do too much. The defense needs to step up and not allow the Chargers to run the ball at will.

Key Matchup:

The Colts defensive line Vs. The Chargers offensive line

  • If the Colts provide any resistance on Sunday, it will be because their defensive line took it upon themselves to make something happen. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have got to have a solid showing. Marcus McNeill and Jeromey Clary have to allow Philip Rivers to go through his progressions. The Chargers grossly outmatch the Colts defense and should have no problems as long as the battle is won at the line of scrimmage.

Wrap Up:

Peyton Manning is in playoff mode. It’s prime time, he’s facing the Chargers, and he’s only giving up three points at home. The Chargers have every reason to win this game, but like the Patriots, the Colts are tough to pick against even when everything points the other way. I’m taking the Colts.

Free NFL Pick: Indianapolis -3

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Written by Kyle Vassalo · Filed Under Free NFL Picks 

Free NFL Pick: Tampa Bay at Baltimore 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday November 28th, 2010 4:15 PM EST

Line: Baltimore -8

Overview:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have turned heads around the league by starting off 7-3. Last week, the Bucs shut out the 49ers at home, winning 21-0. They have won four of their last five games, losing only to the division leading Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs have only lost one game this season on the road, so going into Baltimore should not be seen as a disadvantage.

The 7-3 Baltimore Ravens  are undefeated at home. They are on top of the AFC North and in a two team race with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens and every other seven win team in the AFC need to remain focused. 11 wins doesn’t guarantee the playoffs and Baltimore knows their best bet is winning the division outright, starting with a victory over Tampa Bay this weekend.

Keys to the Game:

  • Joe Flacco has 15 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last eight games. Flacco is one of the most mild mannered quarterbacks in the NFL and he has his team firing on all cylinders. While some may say that Flacco is a product of being surrounded with a big physical line and a great run game with Anquan Boldin at wide receiver, Flacco plays a huge part in the success Baltimore has. Baltimore has been known as a team that wins in spite of their quarterback play over the years, so seeing them transition away from that mentality is a good change of pace.
  • Josh Freeman looks the part. He is an athletic quarterback with good down the field accuracy. He is most effective when he is throwing on the run and has turned the Bucs offense into a dynamic passing offense. What is most impressive is Freeman’s ability to perform in clutch situations and on the road. He has one of those comeback/clutch auras some quarterbacks have. While he isn’t Joe Montana or John Elway, he definitely fits the bill in Tampa Bay.
  • The Ravens should do a good job at containing Freeman. Much like the Bucs gameplan against the 49ers, the Ravens will stress quarterback contain. They have the outside linebackers to pursue Freeman on the outside and the push up the middle to completely collapse the pocket. By forcing Freeman to become a pocket passer and then destroying the pocket, the Bucs take away his ability to extend plays, which is a huge blow to the Bucs offense.
  • The Bucs looked fantastic last week against San Francisco. Their big question marks were against the run and putting pressure on the quarterback. They were very aggressive against the 49ers and completely shut down Frank Gore. If they continue to be aggressive, they will see results like they saw last week. They can’t live in fear of the Ravens offense, as sitting back and trying not to allow the big play will be counter productive.

Key Matchup:

Ray Rice Vs. The Bucs front seven

  • Ray Rice couldn’t even get the ball moving against the Panthers last week. Rice has racked up a ton of receiving yards as the check down receiver, but will need to improve on the ground. The Bucs may or may not attack the Ravens like they did against Frank Gore. The Ravens have a better quarterback, so the game plan may pull in the reigns just a big, but Rice needs to return to putting up 100 yards a game every once in a while.
  • He has a big physical offensive line and a wide receiver corp that opens up the run game. He should be able to get back on track, though I expected him to last week and he came up short.

Wrap Up:

The Bucs are on a tear. While they have shown promise throughout the season, they have not beaten a team with a winning record. They also suffered two blowout losses and the way Baltimore is playing, it is easy to see how a blow out could occur. I’m giving Tampa Bay the benefit of the doubt. The Ravens haven’t blown away any good teams this year and I think it will be close, though the Ravens should win.

Free NFL Pick: Tampa Bay +8

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Written by Kyle Vassalo · Filed Under Free NFL Picks 

Free NFL Pick: St. Louis at Denver 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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St. Louis Rams at Denver Broncos

Sunday November 28th, 2010 4:15 PM EST

Line: Denver -4

Overview:

The 4-6 Rams have dropped two straight, but remain one game out of first place in the weak NFC West. The Rams have made drastic improvements on both sides of the ball this season and if they could manage o win a couple of games this season on the road, they could be playoff bound. They will be taking on the Denver Broncos, who are 3-7, losing five of their last six games.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Broncos need to switch it up. It’s no secret that they can throw the ball. Kyle Orton has already thrown for over 3,000 yards and Brandon Lloyd is responsible for 1,040 of them. The numbers simply don’t affect the outcome of the game. Lloyd has posted 169 yards twice this season in losing efforts. He has also put up 53 yards in a victory. The Broncos have the 4th best passing offense in the NFL, but their rushing attack is ranked dead last, which makes their aerial assault much less impressive.
  • Sam Bradford is encountering a lot of veterans in the Broncos secondary. His receivers are outmatched and he will need to proceed with caution. Though Bradford is having a great rookie year, the Rams can’t afford any mistakes on the road, as they have struggled mightily away from home. Bradford has eight touchdowns Vs. one pick in his last five games. He needs to continue playing safe, effective football and minimize blown opportunities, as he has done.
  • It is unclear why the Broncos didn’t give Knowshon Moreno more carries. Moreno was limited to 13 carries last week, despite producing when he got in the game. If the Broncos want to win football games, they have to get it going on the ground. The Rams are decent against the run, but bombing the ball down the field and hoping to win in a shootout every week is not nearly as effective as having a dominant running game. Moreno is a first round pick and needs to be utilized as such.
  • Rams defensive end James Hall has 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles this season. Hall and Chris Long combine to anchor the Rams defensive line. They both specialize at rushing the passer and will be able to pin their ears back and go throughout most of the game, as Denver is likely to stick to their air it out philosophy.

Key Matchup:

Steven Jackson Vs. The Denver runs defense

  • Steven Jackson is the definition of a workhorse back. He needs to carry a heavy load again this week. Having a rookie quarterback on the road puts the Rams at a disadvantage, even when that quarterback is Sam Bradford. Jackson will need to have a big day in order to come away with his first road win of the year. If the Rams want to gain any ground on the Seahawks, they need to win on the road.
  • Denver allows 143.5 yards a game on the ground. They should expect the Rams to run the ball and lull them to sleep. The Broncos are soft and if the Rams decide to break their will by pounding the football early, the Broncos defense could be in for a long day.

Wrap Up:

The Rams are much better than their road record indicates. Josh McDaniels and the Broncos have cemented themselves solidly in a game plan that doesn’t work. While the Rams have looked terrible away from home on most occasions, I think they will build on their last road performance and take out the Broncos, winning outright.

Free NFL Pick: St. Louis +4

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Written by Kyle Vassalo · Filed Under Free NFL Picks 

Free NFL Pick: Philadelphia at Chicago 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Sunday November 28th, 2010 4:15 PM EST

Line: Philadelphia -4

Overview:

At 7-3, the Philadelphia Eagles have become the most electrifying team in the NFL. The Eagles have won fie of their last six and look unstoppable on the offensive side of the ball. They are playing their best football right now, which makes them dangerous for any team to face.

This is a perfect matchup, as the 7-3 Chicago Bears have arrived at 7-3 on the shoulders of their defense. The Bears have won three in a row and shut the Dolphins out last week on the road. Both teams are on top of their division, but one step in the wrong direction for either team could spell disaster for thier season. This is a crucial juncture in the season for both football teams.

Keys to the Game:

  • How do you stop Michael Vick? Vick not only leads the league in quarterback rating with 108.7, he also leads all quarterbacks in rushing and has five touchdowns on the ground this year. Vick has DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy at his disposal, two of the only players in the league that could challenge him in a foot race. He has the ability to extend plays and launch the ball down field for six from anywhere on the field. He is the ultimate play maker and a serious MVP candidate.
  • The question becomes, are the Bears fast enough on defense to contain Michael Vick? In a word, no. Then again, nobody really has the raw speed to contain Vick. Last week, the Giants contained Vick to posting human numbers. The key to their success was the play of their front four. The Bears can have similar production, but can’t get caught chasing Vick. They have to remain disciplined and having guys like Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher in your front seven makes discipline attainable. If any team can slow Vick, it’s the Bears.
  • Matt Forte showed some life last week. He put up 98 yards and was a crucial part of the big win over Miami. Forte has to make his presence felt again. He was know for his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and contribute on the ground, but has shown serious regression since the beginning of the season. If Forte can get back on track it makes it easier on Jay Cutler.

Key Matchup:

Trent Cole Vs Jay Cutler

  • Trent Cole has seven sacks on the season. Cole has steadily declined as the season has gone on, but he still plays a crucial role in applying pass rush effectively. Cole should win the matchup against the Bears offensive line. The Bears have a terrible offensive line. They have improved, but they haven’t improved to an average status just yet.While usually when an edge rusher is featured in the key matchup it’s against a left tackle, this week it is more fitting to pair him with Jay Cutler.
  • Cutler makes more mistakes the more he is forced to move around. Cutler looks like an all pro at times, but when he doesn’t get time, which happens more often than not, he makes poor decisions. Cutler has thrown seven picks in his last four games. His day has a negative correlation with Trent Cole’s day.

Wrap Up:

I’ve been harder on the Bears this season than I should have been, but the way Philadelphia is playing, there is no way I can go with the Bears this week. Their defense should fair well, but their offense leaves something to be desired. It’s no secret that they need to surround Cutler with an improved offensive line and some legitimate threats at receiver.

Free NFL Pick: Philadelphia -4

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Free NFL Pick: Kansas City at Seattle 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday November 28th, 2010 4:05 PM EST

Line: Kansas City -1

The 6-4 Chiefs are a hit or miss football team. When they are at home, they hit. On the road, they miss. Arrowhead could be the best home field advantage in the league. The Chiefs are a dismal 1-4 on the road this season. If they want to continue to reign supreme in the AFC West, they will need to start putting together victories on the road.

The 5-5 Seahawks could also have the best home field advantage in the NFL. Qwest field is an obnoxiously loud stadium that makes opposing offenses flustered and out of sorts. Playing football deaf is a skill that the Chiefs are going to need to have in their arsenal, should they succeed Vs. the 12th man. The Seahawks are in first place at 5-5, but they have lost the three of the last four games. Both teams sit atop the worst divisions in football. Can the Chiefs steal one on the road in such a hostile environment?

Keys to the Game:

  • It may be being beaten to death, but the Chiefs still have the best running attack in the NFL. The Seahawks have a defense that is more geared to stopping the run than the pass, but the Chiefs certainly have the upper hand in this outing. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should both be able to have a solid day. Seattle doesn’t have great speed and while they have sure tackling linebackers, Charles in particular is nearly untouchable in open space.
  • Seahawks wide receiver Mike Williams could have the most curious injury of the season thus far. The Seahawks aren’t really disclosing much information about the foot injury and it is being listed as a game time decision. In his last two games, Williams has 17 catches for 254 yards. He has had a huge year for the Seahawks and without his presence, the already struggling Seattle offense takes a huge hit.
  • Okay Matt Cassel, it’s your time to prove you are the franchise quarterback some fans want to believe you are. It is inaccurate to say any NFL win is an easy win, but when you are the starting quarterback for the Chiefs at Arrowhead, coming away with a number of victories should be well in your grasp. What is very telling of Cassel this season is his inability to come away with wins on the road. The losses don’t all fall upon Cassel, especially the Denver game where he threw for 469 yards, but he needs to come up with big time clutch throws at the end of games to be the difference on the road, as he does at Arrowhead. The losses fall on the team, but if Cassel wants to prove to Kansas City fans he is worth the fortune they paid for him, he needs a signature win on the road.
  • What has gotten into Chris Clemons this season? The seventh year pro is dominating in the Pete Carrol system, racking up 7.5 sacks. He is a specimen with surprising athleticism, which is the prototypical description for a defensive end dating back to Carrol’s USC days. Cassel doesn’t have too bad of a problem getting the ball off, but the Chiefs have to account for Clemons coming off the edge.

Key Matchup:

Kansas City Vs. Qwest Field

  • This is the ultimate challenge for the Chiefs. This game would be interesting if it was on a neutral field, as both teams have such a great home field advantage. The Chiefs need to stay disciplined on offense and not let the crowd noise force them to make mental errors. This will be very telling of their resiliency and they will not face a tougher place to play all season long.

Wrap Up:

I think the Chiefs are a better team. The Seahawks looked terrible last week and while the Chiefs struggle on the road, Seattle has some glaring holes that need to be addressed. Matt Hasselbeck is back, but even he has been a liability at times this season. I like the Chiefs to put it together this week, though the location could be the difference in this matchup.

Free NFL Pick: Kansas City -1

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Free NFL Pick: Miami at Oakland 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders

Sunday November 28th, 2010 4:15 PM EST

Line: Even

Overview:

The 5-5 Miami Dolphins fall victim to playing in the AFC East, where the two best teams in football thus far are four games ahead of the Dolphins. While Playoffs look out of reach at this point, the Dolphins can’t stumble into the end of the season with performances like they had last week, when they laid an egg against the Bears on their home field.

The Oakland Raiders are another 5-5 team, but unlike the Dolphins, they are right in the mix of playoff conversation. The Chiefs are up one game on the Raiders, but have shown they are vulnerable and beatable. The Raiders have the tie breaker over the Chiefs and the whole division may come down to the week 17 matchup at Arrowhead. The Raiders got spanked last week against the Steelers and showed just how undisciplined they can be.

Keys to the Game:

  • Raiders left tackle Jared Veldheer may have the size to handle Cameron Wake off the edge, but it is unlikely he will be able to contain him. Wake is simply one of the best in the NFL. With 9.5 sacks this season, Wake quietly goes about his business and terrorizes opposing quarterbacks. Jason Campbell has seen an influx in his attempts -aside from last week- but will need to pull the trigger a bit sooner if he wants to get the ball off at all. Limiting mistakes is going to be crucial for Campbell.
  • Darren McFadden looked miserable last week against Pittsburgh. As a result, so did the Raiders. McFadden is the catalyst behind the entire Raiders offense. When he is in the game, the Raiders look like a completely different team. The Steelers shut him down and the Raiders had nowhere to turn. Luckily for the Raiders, unless they meet up in the playoffs they won’t see a run defense like that for the rest of the season. The Dolphins have a much more manageable run defense to sift through. Look for McFadden to get back on track this week.
  • No Brandon Marshall on Sunday will spell no go for the Dolphins offense. Marshall is their best weapon and if he in fact does not play, the Dolphins will be forced to go in with either an injured left tackle and injured quarterback combo with no weapons in sight, or backups at those respective positions. The Dolphins offense is entering crisis mode.

Key Matchup:

Tyler Thigpen/Chad Henne Vs Raiders secondary

  • The Dolphins need to make it a point to not force the ball to their receivers. If Marshall is not on the field, every one of their receivers is outmatched. The worst thing they can do is go about their business as though nothing has been altered. They need to run the ball and rely on their defense to try and hold off McFadden. The Dolphins are being forced to revert back to their old ways. It’s time to break out the Wildcat.
  • The Raiders secondary will benefit from facing an erratic quarterback. While it is unlikely that Richard Seymour will assault Tyler Thigpen or Chad Henne -at least I think so- the Raiders defensive line could indulge in a few coverage sacks. This won’t do anything for the confidence of their quarterback.

Wrap Up:

I’m not sure what the appeal of the Raiders is this season with betting, but I seem to pick them nearly every week. The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread when they are the away team, but I can’t pick them with the questions their offense poses. McFadden should see 100 yards again this week as the Dolphins enter a state of indifference.

Free NFL Pick: Oakland (Even)

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Free NFL Pick: Tennessee at Houston 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Sunday November 28th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Even

Overview:

The 5-5 Tennessee Titans are only one game behind first place in their division, but their season is going to be an uphill battle. With a quarterback head coach rift, the Titans are having serious quarterback questions. They haven’t been able to utilize Randy Moss at all and have dropped three straight games.

The 4-6 Texans have been picked as the sleeper in the AFC for a number of years now. Every year it seems as though they are going to make a playoff push and solidify themselves as a force. They have fallen victim to a brutal AFC South in the past, but this year the division is wide open. Even so, the Texans are sitting at the bottom of the division, after losing four in a row. Who can snap their losing streak and who will be stuck at the bottom of the division?

Keys to the Game:

  • The Texans allow more than 300 yards through the air on average, but it won’t matter on Sunday. The Titans have placed Vince Young on IR and Kerry Collins has an injured calf. This means 6th round pick Rusty Smith will be getting the nod on Sunday. He came in for nine plays against Washington and threw three completions and one interception. Smith clearly is not the answer to getting Moss the ball more. The Titans don’t want this to get out of control, so cutting the play book in half is probably a solid first step this week.
  • Mario Williams added to sacks against the New York Jets last week, giving him 7.5 on the year. The Jets have an excellent front, so this feat deserves some recognition, though the Titans weren’t able to come away with the victory. It is unlikely the Titans are really going to put the ball in the air excessively, given their quarterback situation, but should they do so, hopefully they learned from the Jets that blocking Mario Williams one on one is virtually impossible.
  • Matt Schaub needs to frequent Andre Johnson’s services this Sunday. Johnson is one of those guys who can completely alter the course of the game. At times, he looks like he is playing at a level that is head and shoulders above the competition. Given the Titans pass defense, it is likely Johnson will have at least 100 yards. Arian Foster is a huge part of the offense, but he is effective in part because of the huge threat Johnson poses. Having one of the best in the game split out wide makes it impossible to load up the box.

Key Matchup:

Chris Johnson Vs. Arian Foster

  • Chris Johnson averages over 100 yards a game for his career. He is easily the most electrifying running back in the NFL. He is going to need to have a monster game in order to make this game close. The Texans are likely to bring the heat to disturb the pocket and keep the running game in check. They can’t overpursue, or the Johnson will make them pay dearly. If Johnson doesn’t put up 120 yards, the Titans don’t have a chance.
  • Arian Foster already has 1,000 yards on the ground. He gives the Texans a complete offense, bringing a dynamic in the run game that has not been present in the history of the Texans. Having a running back that can take advantage of Andre Johnson’s presence and force defenses to play honestly makes the Texans versatile and well rounded.

Wrap Up:

I don’t like where either of these teams are headed. The Demeco Ryans injury has shaken up the Texans defense. If Vince Young was in the game, I would give the nod to the Titans because of how miserable the Texans pass defense is. The fact of the matter is, in a pick’em game where Rusty Smith is under center for one team and Matt Schaub is at home on the other sideline, I’m taking Schaub ten out of ten times.

Free NFL Pick: Houston


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Free NFL Pick: Minnesota at Washington 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins

Sunday November 28th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Washington -2

Overview:

The 3-7 Minnesota Vikings could easily be the biggest disappointment in the NFL. They have lost four of their last five, with their only victory coming in comeback fashion against the struggling Arizona Cardinals in overtime. They have an 0-5 road record this season and a new head coach at the helm. It is unclear where the Vikings will go after this season, with an aging roster and no viable option at quarterback in sight.

The Washington Redskins have already improved from last season, regardless of how the rest of the season goes. At 5-5, bringing in Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan has paid dividends already. That being said, it is difficult for me to remember an NFL team being humiliated the way the Redskins were when they took on the Eagles. This team has a long way to go, but their overtime victory against the Titans helps their cause.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Redskins cannot tackle. When you take a look at their defense, it is hard to really put a finger on the problem. London Fletcher, Robby McIntosh, Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo, etc. These are all names of players that are known for sure tackling. The past two games in particular, nothing could be further from the truth. The entire Eagles offense ran through arm tackles the entire night. Last week, Chris Johnson broke loose because everyone struggled to break down and wrap up. The Redskins face Adrian Peterson this week, who is not exactly the ideal running back to face when your team is undergoing tackling issues.
  • Adrian Peterson is the most dangerous running back in the NFL. Chris Johnson is great, Arian Foster is having a phenomenal year, but A.P. is the most consistently dominant back in the league. His rare combination of speed and size have always given defenses fits, but his fumbling problem has always put a damper on his career. This off season, it appears as though he has taken care of his fumbling woes, as he has no fumbles on his 211 carries. The Vikings are struggling and Peterson’s carries need to see an influx to compensate for poor quarterback play.
  • Clinton Portis is on the IR. Ryan Torain is out with a hamstring injury. As a result, Keiland Williams will be getting the start. Williams has 195 career yards. Though he has performed sufficiently during his limited play this season, it is unclear whether or not he has even remotely what it takes to be a feature back in the NFL. Through a set of unlikely circumstances, Williams went from being signed off the practice squad to being the starter. Despite their struggles, the Vikings still allow less than 100 yards on the ground a game. It will be interesting to see how he does.
  • Donovan McNabb needs to take it upon himself to win this football game. The Redskins are not completely out of the playoff race and this is why the Redskins brought him in. He is playing for his contract and the playoffs. With running back questions, the Redskins are going to have to rely heavily on the pass. McNabb needs to step his game up late in the season. Only throwing more touchdowns than picks once this season isn’t going to cut it if the Redskins want to be in the playoffs.

Key Matchup:

Trent Williams Vs. Jared Allen

  • Trent Williams has a habit of making into the key matchup. The Redskins bypassed more highly touted tackles to snag Williams with their first round pick. Williams has already faced Julius Peppers, and Dwight Freeney this season, giving up no sacks to either of them.
  • Allen has 5.5 sacks in his last three games. He should be able to take advantage of going up against a rookie left tackle, but I thought the same would prove true for Freeney and Peppers. Williams has held his own, but Allen can pin his ears back, knowing the Redskins will rely heavily upon McNabb while their running back situation is in shambles.

Wrap Up:

The Vikings haven’t won on the road this season. They have no continuity and look flustered. A head coaching change might be what the team needed, but it came too late to salvage this season. Brett Favre will end his career on a low note and Vikings have absolutely nothing to play for. For that reason, I give the nod to the Redskins, because they still show signs of wanting to win. The Redskins also need to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd after the Monday Night performance in their last home outing.

Free NFL Pick: Washington -2

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Free NFL Pick: Jacksonville at New York Giants 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants

Sunday November 28th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: New York Giants -8

Overview:

It appeared -for a brief moment- as though the New York Giants were going to take hold of a struggling NFC. After back to back double digit losses against division opponents, the Giants are fighting for their playoff lives. The Eagles are becoming the dark horse in the NFC race and have a firm hold over the NFC East. With three teams having the edge over the G-men, they need one desperately here.

Nobody has been more impressive this season than Jacksonville. While they certainly aren’t worthy of the elite status, we are in Week 12 and the Jaguars sit atop the AFC South. While I anticipated the race in the AFC South being closer than come projected, I never imagined the Jaguars would be the team to push the Colts. At 6-4, if the Jaguars can knock off the Giants, it will make the AFC South even more interesting.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Jaguars offense matches up well against the Giants defense. The Giants relish in dominating the trenches on defense. While they should continue that pattern, the Jaguars can still generate offense. The Jaguars are a run first football team, but succeed when they throw the ball effectively. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to get his touches, but he will likely struggle to get penetrate the second level against a Giants defense that allows less than 90 yards a game on the ground.
  • David Gerrard is going to be pressured, but the Jaguars offense is structured to handle such pressure. Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas lead the Jaguars receiving corp and neither average over 13 yards a catch. Thomas can be a deep threat, but Gerrard does an excellent job of dumping the ball off to take advantage of mismatches when teams disregard the Jaguars passing game. This explains his 98.5 quarterback rating. The Jaguars came into this season one dimensional, but have since loosened Gerrard’s leash. He failed to break 200 yards in his first six games and has since posted back to back to back games with at least 250 yards and multiple touchdowns.
  • Brandon Jacobs is getting the nod over Ahmad Bradshaw? Are you kidding me? I am a huge Tom Coughlin fan, but this is boneheaded. Bradshaw has had problems fumbling the ball, but he is also a top five running back and leads the league in runs of 20+ yards, with ten. The Vikings didn’t bench Adrian Peterson when he had fumbling problems. Bradshaw is not the reason the Giants have taken a step backwards and this demotion doesn’t do anything but make Bradshaw run more timidly. Horrible decision, regardless of how many carries Coughlin says can go around. Jacobs supported Bradshaw when he was given the nod and you can expect Bradshaw to return the favor, but Coughlin needs to approach this a different way.
  • Marcedes Lewis could have a big day. His eight touchdowns best Roddy White and Brandon Lloyd. When the Jags get into the red zone, Jones-Drew commands the complete attention of the defense. Lewis sneaks through the defense and too often finds himself standing alone in the end zone. Mike Thomas is a deep threat receiver, but can quickly become a possession receiver when teams turn up the heat and only allow a short amount of time for Gerrard to get the ball off. Lewis and Thomas will both need to be reliable outlets for Gerrard, should he receiver premature pressure.

Key Matchup:

Maurice Jones-Drew Vs. the Giants front four

  • MJD makes everything happen for the Jaguars offense. He has posted three 100 yard games in a row. It has completely opened up the Jaguars offense and if he can continue to have this sort of production, the Jaguars won’t be able to be slowed in any facet of their offense. The four teams he has posted 100 yards on this season (Indianapolis, Cleveland, Houston, and Dallas) are not exactly among the best run defenses in the league, so it is fair to be slightly skeptical when projecting his performance against a stout defense like the Giants.
  • Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck lead the charge for the entire Giants defense. The two are nearly impossible to control, as it is impossible to double team both of them and not be dominated in the interior line. The Jaguars will need to feature an offense full of quick hitting plays that take close to no time to develop. The Giants defensive line will likely wreak havoc in the backfield, but they can’t allow themselves to over pursue or lose sight of the compact, shifty Maurice Jones-Drew.

Wrap Up:

I thought the Giants might be the best team in the league only a few weeks ago. At this point, they can’t afford to drop another game. The Jaguars aren’t in a position to lose on Sunday either. Right now they have a leg up on Peyton Manning and would like to keep it that way by racking up another win on Sunday. This may not be the game of the week, but it is one of the most compelling matchups of the week. Both of these teams are teetering between making and missing the playoffs, which makes for great competition. The spread is eight and given the way both teams are playing, it looks like three would be a more suitable spread.

Free NFL Pick: Jacksonville +8

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Free NFL Pick: Carolina at Cleveland 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

Sunday November 28th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Cleveland -9

Overview:

Very few people will be watching the 1-9 Carolina Panthers take on the 3-7 Cleveland Browns. As poor as these two teams are, this is a very intriguing betting matchup. The Browns are favored by nine points, which is almost a sure fire lock regardless of who they play.

The fact that they are playing the worst team in the NFL makes it more challenging to put money on their opponent. The Browns took out New Orleans and New England by double digit margins. Is it so absurd to think they could do the same to a team like Carolina?

Keys to the Game:

  • Peyton Hillis has to have a huge game. Hillis is no stranger to taking over football games. While he has well over 1000 yards from scrimmage this year, Hillis had a dismal rushing performance last week that resulted in a loss against Jacksonville. The Browns tried tirelessly to get something going on the ground, but Hillis struggled on the ground. Even so, he dominated catching the ball out of the backfield, hauling in six passes, including one for 47 yards. The Browns rely heavily on Hillis to move the ball down the field. They may be in luck this week, as the Panthers defense has played with little ambition this season.
  • The Panthers defense lost their two best players. Julius Peppers left to free agency, a decision that should cost someone their job. The lack of a dominant pass rusher at defensive end in a 4-3 has resulted in a lack of a pass rush in general. Nobody has filled the Peppers void and the team will need to address the problem during free agency. Although losing Peppers was a huge blow, the loss of John Beason this season is the most damaging to the defense. Beason is a Pro Bowl talent on defense. Without their signal caller and quarterback of the defense, the Panthers have no identity or sense of urgency on that side of the ball.
  • Josh Cribbs is Mr. Everything for the Browns. While Hillis is the most important part of the offense, Cribbs is hands down the most versatile. The Wildcat back/receiver/special teams monster dislocated three of his toes and is listed as questionable this week. While Cribbs is expected to play in a limited capacity, he has played in a limited capacity all season. He is now in a position where he can do a little bit of everything without doing everything entirely. His returns have not been as explosive as last year, but teams still know they have to be extra careful when they kick the ball to him. It will be interesting to see how he is recovers from his toe injuries, as a toe injury of any kind should never be seen as trivial.

Key Matchup

Jimmy Clausen Vs. Jake Delhomme

  • Jimmy Clausen could very well be the future of the Carolina Panthers. He has struggled this year, but in that offense, there are few young quarterbacks that could succeed. His line is splotchy and he has limited weapons around him. The Panthers don’t seem sold on Clausen as their quarterback of the present, but Clausen gives them the best chance to win.
  • Jake Delhomme is a step down from Colt McCoy. While Delhomme might have the experience, McCoy has the intangibles. The Browns respond to McCoy and how the huddle feels about their quarterback directly affects their play on the field. Delhomme will be facing his former team, but will that be enough to turn around his terrible 2010 performance? Delhomme is throwing four times more picks than touchdowns. While the Panthers aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears,Delhomme can’t be careless with the ball. If one quarterback grossly outperforms the other, this matchup will dictate who wins the game.

Wrap Up:

The Cleveland Browns haven’t taken a huge step backwards. They lost a couple of games consecutively, but that has to be expected. The Browns showed flashes of brilliance this season, but they aren’t a playoff team this year. Expecting them to compete week in and week out is asking too much. The Jaguars are not a bad team and the Browns can’t afford to sulk over such a loss.

The Panthers are the worst team in the NFL. They are missing most of their best players and have zero leadership on either side of the ball. While it is very hard for me to pick them, I can’t help but see that Cleveland -9 spread as being out of reach for the Browns. The Browns should win -barring a Jake Delhomme meltdown- but betting on them to blow anyone away doesn’t seem as safe as the alternative.

Free NFL Pick: Carolina +9

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Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh at Buffalo 11-28-2010

November 27, 2010

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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday November 28th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Pittsburgh -7

Overview:

The Buffalo Bills may be 2-8, but they are on a two game win streak. The Bills are still one of the worst teams in the league, but they have remained competitive since their bye week, winning two games, going into overtime twice, and having all three losses come by a three point margin. Unfortunately for the Bills, they take on one of the best teams in the league when they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are 7-3 this season and have won by coupling shut down defense and physical play on both sides of the ball. The Steelers are scrutinized because they struggle against elite teams, but they won’t be facing such a team when they take on Buffalo on Sunday. Pittsburgh is a dominant team and though the Bills have looked decent recently, is it logical to think they can keep it within one score in Pittsburgh?

Keys to the Game:

  • The Bills offense does not match up well against the Steelers defense. While very few offenses match up against the Pittsburgh defense favorably, Buffalo’s strengths will likely be kept in check when they take on the Steelers. The Bills succeed on offense when Ryan Fitzpatrick gets outside the pocket and they get the run game going. The problem is, Fitzpatrick will likely remain in the pocket and the run game is going nowhere.
  • The Steelers are the number one team against the run this season. It’s hard to find a hole in their front seven. They run the 3-4, which is a defense that relies heavily on the outside linebackers setting the edge to inhibit any offensive player from breaking contain. In the Bill’s case, Fitzpatrick is the most dangerous player on the field. He is borderline ineffective if he has to become a pocket passer. With James Harrison and Lamar Woodley being responsible for contain, Fitzpatrick is likely to be suffocated.
  • Brett Keisel is likely coming back this week. This is huge for the Steelers, as Keisel is one of the most important parts of the front seven. While Casey Hampton gets most of the credit for the Steelers defensive line, Keisel plays a pivotal role in the Dick LeBeau’s defense. The linebacker corp is obviously among the most feared in the NFL. They become more effective when Keisel is present in the lineup.
  • The Bills really can’t stop the run. The Steelers will likely take advantage of the porous Bills defense by feeding Rashard Mendenhall a hefty amount of carries early on. This isn’t to say that the Bills look great against the pass, but teams are certainly less eager to air it out than put it on the ground. The Steelers have big time targets in Mike Wallace and Hines Ward. While they can’t sleep on the pass game, they need to focus on making sure tackles and being more physical up front. When Paul Posluszny headlines your front seven, it could be time to address your personnel.

Key Matchup:

Bills defense Vs. Pittsburgh offense.

  • While I have never chosen an entire defense vs an entire offense for the key matchup before, I think it is fitting here. Despite their record, the Bills are not miserable on offense. They could be better, sure, but they offense has held their own for most of the season. On one occasion they put up 34 points against the Ravens in a losing effort. The blame for this season lies on the defense. The Bills can produce on offense, but if their defense doesn’t develop a sense of urgency, they will continue to stack up losses.
  • Pittsburgh is going to punish the Bills on offense. Their physical offensive line looks destined to blaze a trail for Mendenhall with ease. It is unlikely that the Steelers will find themselves in a shoot out, so if the Bills have any shot at covering, they will have to contain the Steelers on offense. While this matchup may not be the key in who wins the game, the only way the Bills cover is if they get involved in a defensive struggle by providing some sort of resistance on defense.

Wrap Up:

The Steelers, Giants, and Jets were teams that looked like they were going to skip through the regular season into the playoffs. While all three of them remain solidly in the playoff picture, the past few weeks have made teams challenge their superiority. The Jets came away with a big time victory against a weaker opponent and the Steelers need to do the same this week.

The Bills have been involved in tight games recently. They kept it close in Arrowhead and Baltimore, which is a feat in itself. That being said, the Bills are vulnerable to being blown out. I’ve taken the Bills on occasion this season, but they are a pathetic 1-3 against the spread at home. If this game was in Pittsburgh, the Bills may have a chance at covering against the Steelers with a larger spread. As it stands, this game has big time blow out potential.

Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh -7

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Free NFL Pick: Green Bay at Atlanta 11-28-2010

November 26, 2010

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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday November 27th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Atlanta -2

Overview:

Not too long ago, experts questioned whether or not the NFC had any elite teams in the entire conference. It seems now that the NFC could make a case as being the superior conference. Two teams that have a legitimate shot at making a Super Bowl run are featured in this matchup. The team with the best record in the NFC, the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons, are undefeated at home this season.

Their competition will be stiff this week, as they take on the 7-3 Green Bay Packers. The Packers have won in impression fashion the last three weeks, shutting out the Jets in the Meadowlands and winning by an average of 33 points in their other two games. The Falcons and Packers are both rolling, but the winner of this game will probably become the Vegas favorite as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Packers have to have an answer for Roddy White. White is on pace for a ridiculous 1627 yard season. White has already broken for five 100 yard games this season. Charles Woodson is a fantastic corner, but covering White is a tall task for any corner back to take on. White is 6’0 tall, but he plays like he is 6’5. He is one of the best possession receivers in the league and the Packers can’t give Matt Ryan time to allow plays to develop. Luckily for Green Bay, they have the best outside pass rusher in the NFL.
  • Clay Matthews looks like he has defensive player wrapped up. He is leading the league in sacks this year with 11.5. Matthews is versatile and alternates between the left and right side on defense, making him difficult to game plan against. He is one of those players that alters the thinking of offenses. Ryan may find himself letting the ball go just a bit quicker with Matthews lurking on the edge.
  • Sam Baker is a fantastic left tackle, but the Falcons should not be foolish enough to think they are going to be able to block him 1 on 1. They are going to have to leave Tony Gonzalez or Michael Turner in to help with protection, which takes away from their versatility. Just as Roddy White can take over a game, so can Clay Matthews. It is imperative that both teams devote multiple players to neutralizing their impact.
  • The Packers are +8 in turnover margin this season and the Falcons are +10. There are certain stats that I see as being overrated, but the turnover battle is certainly not one of them. Both teams  have excelled in large part because of their ability to capitalize on their opponent’s mistakes. While both defenses are excellent at forcing turnovers, both quarterbacks have been playing lights out over their last three games and turnovers won’t come easy.
  • Michael Turner is quietly having an outstanding year. Turner has run for 100 yards or more in half of his games this season. Green Bay isn’t weak against the run, but they still allow 112.1 yards a game. While the Falcons will obviously look to take care of Roddy White first and foremost, they won’t survive the Michael Turner onslaught, should they choose to think of the Atlanta run game as a lesser priority.

Key Matchup:

Matt Ryan Vs. Aaron Rodgers

  • Matt Ryan has an 18 touchdown to five interception ratio. In his last three games, he has six touchdowns and no interceptions. Ryan has utilized White out wide, but he also gets the ball to Tony Gonzalez and sells the play action just as well as any quarterback in the league. The Falcons have a complete offense and having Ryan at the helm limits mistakes, but gives Atlanta big play potential.
  • Aaron Rodgers has been up against it this season. The season crushing injuries to Green Bay on offense give the quarterback many reasons to fail. Rodgers works with the talent he still has in his wide receiver corp. With an unspectacular running back tandem in John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson, teams know Rodgers is going to throw the ball, yet the Packers passing game has managed to excel. Rodgers was having a turnover problem earlier in the season, but in the past two games, he has 7 touchdowns vs. 0 interceptions.

Wrap Up:

This is clearly the matchup of the week. I can’t take anything away from either one of these teams, which makes it difficult to decide who will cover. The Packers are going to put up a fight, but I’m taking the Falcons because they are at home. It’s going to be a tight game, but I think Atlanta should come away with a four point victory. They have won every single home game and other than one two point victory over the 49ers, they have won by five or more in every single home outing.

Free NFL Pick: Atlanta -2


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Written by Kyle Vassalo · Filed Under Free NFL Picks 

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