Chris Grisham asked:


There is no other great place to engage in sports betting than in the city that never sleeps, Las Vegas. The Las Vegas sports betting scene is alive and exciting. It is not only in casinos where you can place your bets, but also on various sports events.

Generally, when uncontrollable and unforeseen events happen, such a rapid change in weather, sudden power outages, and the likes, bettors often wonder how these factors would affect the outcome of the wager and the Las Vegas sports betting scenario as a whole. Two things will happen in such cases. First, if the game has not yet begun, no action will be taken on the wagers; it will just be refunded. On the other hand, if the game has already started and was just interrupted by sudden unforeseen events, special rules will be given. Complications usually arise when the game is not completed on that same day. This is where a sports book comes in handy. Sports books do not only give you information but also guidelines on sports betting, especially on the most common rules applied when uncontrollable circumstances occur.

If you want to participate in any Las Vegas sports betting events, you have to know the rules on Las Vegas sports betting. For situations mentioned in the previous paragraph, the rule is interpreted as: If a person is in search of winning picks and favorable predictions to serve as guides on Las Vegas sports betting, the person can view the ‘Advisory Board’ where the page of free expert picks on the six expert handicapper is listed. If you really want to be certain, you may check on the renowned sports betting picks leader, Doc’s Sports. In addition, if the game goes beyond nine innings and was not completed due to unforeseen events, there will be action on game total as well as run line wagers.

Other standard Las Vegas sports betting rules for baseball states that:

1.    The wager only becomes actionable if the game is announced as official for sides play. This usually happens when the home team is on a winning streak in its 4 and a half inning; and on the fifth for the visiting team.

2.    In cases where the game is officially cancelled, even suspended, the score in the last inning determines who the winner of the game is.

3.    If scores are tied, or obtains lead in the last half of the inning, the score by the time the game is called determines who wins. If both teams were really good and still the game is tied, bets will be refunded, and the game suspended.

4.    As mentioned earlier, wagers will only have action if all events are completed on the same date.

5.    If the home team is winning after 8 and a half innings (and 9 innings for the visiting team), the game then becomes official for run line plays and game totals. Otherwise, both will be refunded.

To really ensure consistent winnings baseball or on any sport, investing in a handicapper or in a system that uses trends angles, experience, and a proven system for a profitable hobby.



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Chanel Miller asked:


Sports gambling is a multi-million dollar industry and everyone wants a cut. Whether you are betting socially or in it to make some serious cash, here are the top three tips to ensure you place your best bets and are at the top of your game.

Manage Your Money

One of the most crucial yet often ignored aspects of sports betting is money management. The first and most important step in proper money management when betting is to not bet more than you can afford. Sounds simple but many rookie bettors find themselves caught up and bet way more than they actually have. Set aside a certain amount for betting and stick to it whether you win or lose. Secondly, do not chase your bets if you lose! Chasing bets is a surefire way to lose your money each and every time.

Shop Around for the Best Numbers

Getting the best line should be one of your top priorities when betting your hard-earned money. Different sportsbooks will undoubtedly have inconsistencies in numbers on different sports. Many sportsbooks will offer free baseball, basketball, or football picks in order to get your business. While it is an attractive and highly effective technique, just keep in mind that a simple point or two could mean the difference between your win and loss, so shop around for the best numbers available.

Don’t Bet Under the Influence

Period. Alcohol will impair your judgment and cloud your senses, making you prone to more rash, sloppy, and impulsive decisions. Why do you think Las Vegas casinos offer gamblers an endless supply of free drinks? Successful sports betting requires sharp thinking so stay away from alcohol (and any other substance, for that matter) when placing your bets.



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Chris Grisham asked:


The question on how to win at sports betting can’t be answered by using one or two words alone. It encompasses a wider range of knowledge regarding the sport that is in question.

Gaining the Proper Value in Sports Betting

You should be familiar that there are always two opposing teams playing. You need to take your pick as to who will win and who will lose. Taking your choice is not only a matter of the team’s popularity. It must include several other details like the team’s coach, the key players, and the overall training and skills that each and every member of the team exudes. You don’t want to lose your hard-earned money, right? Therefore, it must be vividly understood that you should get a solid background of the sports that you are betting on. This is one of the ways on how to win at sports betting. Without your interest in the sport that you are risking on, then you can expect that you will never win the money in the end.

Other Things to Keep in Mind

The line, spread, or point spread bet makes available a handicap that is directed towards the favored team. Again, if you want to ensure that you will be happy in the end, you should concert your time and effort to think about which team you should go for.

Being a bettor yourself asks that you must focus your attention to the formulas, angles, trends, and other mathematical concerns therein. It doesn’t only tell you that you must have the skill in recognizing these factors but that you must be clued-up with the entire betting system too. You see, they are all necessary in your intent of working out on how to win at sports betting.

The Valuable Tips to Keep in Mind

If you want to try your luck at sports betting then you must know that you have to face the odds. Without you trying your best to make the best moves, you will end up being a loser, so to speak. Here are the top tips needed on how to win at sports betting.

Place your bet on the appropriate sports book. Statistical records widely suggest that placing your bet to the right sports book can make a great difference. It increases your chances of winning by at least 3%.

Make a bet opposing the public. While this may be quite risky, it has proven itself effective too. Again, it is vital that you know much about the background of the playing teams.

Study before betting. You should reserve ample time to study about the game and your moves or else you may lose a big amount of money.

The steps on how to win at sports betting is not that hard if you know the proper way of recognizing the entire picture that is presented to you. By exercising a profound wisdom on every move that you make, you heighten your opportunities to bring home the bacon! Also, it is practical enough to invest on a handicapper that employs trends, experiences, angles, and a proven system that churns out one winner after the other in baseball or any sport. This in turn will consistently bring in the profits for you!



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Chris Grisham asked:


Are you a fan of baseball? Sure enough, you watch out for a more promising season as always. You want to believe that this year is going to be more prosperous for your chosen team. Baseball enthusiasts like you are nevertheless taking personal picks like you normally do for every baseball season. Are you also up for another season of profit and success? Baseball handicapping as well as betting on the baseball picks are surefire to call on constant income plus tons of cash. Sports betting free picks from the websites are more or less your option apart from gathering your picks from the local magazine and newspaper sports articles. However, you should do a comprehensive research and study for you to be able to identify the trends, injuries, weather conditions, angles, and a lot more. How should you do this then?

Why You must Find a Sport Handicapper

You may have won a few times with your online sports betting free picks. You are satisfied to know that your overall performance ranks to about 90%. Should you have the reason to be contented? Alright you may be doing a fairly good job but you can do more and win more. This percentage places you at approximately 25% up to 35% in the entire ballpark. If you want to win and stabilize your performance, all that you must find are the best sports handicappers. They come cheap but are hard to spot. Yet with your combined effort and time, you will find one that will work best in your favor.

There are sport handicappers that charge above $100 on only one pick. The downside is that most of them provide no refund at all just in case the pick is mistaken. The truth to the matter is that many individuals pay and trust this kind of service. If you qualify under this category, you better stop and think about where your money is going. In fact, you can get a much better service that will require you to pay a very low monthly charge of $50. If you do get lucky enough, you will experience a winning percentage of about 82% or even a more improved ranking. The best sports handicappers that will give room to more satisfying sports betting free picks are the ones that offer a hundred percent refund should you experience being on the losing end for the month. So, will you not grab this opportunity?

Another Good News in Line

These sports betting free picks can even be utilized for the sake of your fantasy sports interest. There are sports handicappers that specialize in providing favorable offers to their patrons. By paying only once, you may get an access to the free baseball picks throughout their websites.

Overall, the websites that make available their sports betting free picks are all over the Internet. You simply have to take time to do your extensive research to spot them. Don’t waste your money over the sports handicappers that are not even concerned if you win or lose. Better side with those that will guide you throughout your quest. Likewise, don’t forget to invest on a handicapper system that will help you win consistently on baseball or any sport. This system utilizes a proven set of angles, trends, and experiences which stirs up winner after winner.



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Chanel Miller asked:



Bookmaker – An establishment that accepts bets placed on the outcome of a sporting event.

Bookie – An individual who accepts bets in sports betting.

Chalk Player – An individual who rarely bets on underdogs, typically placing bets on favorite teams.

Cover – In sports betting, cover refers to a point spread win.

Dog – The team believed to be most likely to lose.

Dog Player – An individual who mostly places bets on the underdog.

Double Bet – Also known as doubling up or a double pop, a double bet is a wager for twice the size of an individual’s usual wager.

Favorite – The team expected to win a sporting event or game.

Figure – The amount of money owed by or to a bookmaker after a sporting event is finished.

Handicapper – A handicapper is someone who analyzes, rates, and wagers on sporting events, races, or games.

Handicapping – Predicting the outcome of sporting events or games.

Line – The current odds or point spread on a particular sporting event.

Linemaker – An individual who establishes the original and subsequent betting lines.

Odds – The probability of a certain outcome occurring, stated in number form.

Over – A sports bet in which the bettors predicts the combined point total of both teams will be above a specified total.

Parlay – A bet in with two or more teams in which all teams must win in order for the better to win and receive higher payouts.

Pick – Sports predictions (namely basketball, baseball, or football picks) in which handicappers select teams or outcomes they think will have a favorable outcome.

Spread – The predicted difference in score between two teams.





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Tom Grassi asked:


Apart from strong luck, Internet sports betting also involves presence of mind, intensive research and analytical capabilities. To be a winning online sports bettor, it is essential to know the fundamentals of sports betting and its pros and cons. To win, you need to be a little strategic and think from practical view point. You must learn the tactics and skills of wagering to achieve success in sports betting. Here are a few pointers that will help you in successful online sports betting.

Make Intelligent Wagers: Accept the fact that your favorite team cannot win all the time. Betting on your favorite team every time is not an intelligent Internet sport betting decision. Choose a team that has strong chances of winning. Selecting a team just because you like it or you don’t want to see it lose is not a wise thing to do. Sports betting is a game of mind and not heart. Never let your emotions rule you.

Manage your money well: Ideally, you should keep some money aside for betting and this bankroll should be the one that you can afford to lose. Never use complete or a large portion of your bankroll on a single bet as the risk of losing your entire bankroll is very high. It is good if you evaluate your budget and divide your bankroll over various smaller bets as it increases the chances of winning. Most importantly, don’t chase your losing bets as it can mismanage your bankroll.

Gather required information before placing the bet: Gather as much statistical information as you can. Follow a scientific methodology and analyze statistics after extensive research. This will surely help you while handicapping. Also, read about Internet sports betting rules and regulations. Try to spot out trends in sports betting.

Take help from professional sports handicappers: Get professional handicapper picks to be more successful in online sports betting. Sports betting picks provided by experts are based on thorough analysis of daily cards, sports betting lines, betting trends, and sports statistics. Advice from reliable and expert handicappers can increase your chances of winning especially if you are new to betting.

Choose reliable company with good reputation: Today, the World Wide Web is loaded with free sports picks, handicappers’ advice, Internet sport betting discounts and so much more. There are many online wagering companies that provide exciting bonuses and assure 100% success, but always remember the risk factor before registering with any online sports betting company. It is advisable to choose a reliable online sports betting website with a good track record.

Vegas Experts provide you the opportunity for online sports betting and gives guaranteed picks. Get advice from topmost handicappers with years of experience in sports betting. For free sports betting picks, useful handicapping information, and helpful sports betting articles; visit http://www.vegasexperts.com.



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Dennis Arthur asked:


Seeing as we are less than 2 weeks removed from one of the more exciting post-seasons to come along in recent memory (congrats to the NY Giants), it seems like an opportune time to discuss a couple of different playoff systems that both found success in 2007, one with a 5-1 ATS record and the other with a perfect 3-0 mark against the number.

Handicapping the post-season effectively requires a different outlook than the regular season and while some of the trends that I use between September and December are valid in January as well, most of my post-season selections are based on roughly 6 different trends that are specific to the playoffs only, all of which have found great success in the past 14 years.

The 2 that will be the focus of this article are fairly simple in nature and with a small amount of work on your part, they can become valuable handicapping tools for you in the 2008 Playoffs.

The first one involves an interesting stat that I have found to be very effective in predicting spread winners in the playoffs: Strength of Victory (SOV).

SOV is essentially the ‘half-brother’ of Strength of Schedule (SOS). The only difference, is that, instead of totaling up the won/loss records of all opponents faced, we are only going to look at the won/loss record for the opponents that a team has defeated. This calculation will obviously take less effort for lousy teams (Miami’s SOV of 0.31 from 2007 doesn’t take long to calculate) and more time for some of the better teams in the league.

A good example from the 2007 season is Kansas City and their SOV of 0.47, which was achieved by defeating 4 opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland) that finished the regular season with a combined record of 30-34.

The league average for SOV is usually only around 0.400 and Kansas City did manage to tie for second in this category, with Atlanta and New England (one of the few statistical area’s where the ‘07 Chiefs were near the top of the league).

So, what does SOV have to do with successfully picking winners in the playoffs? It’s simple really–since 1994, playoff teams that have a lower SOV than their opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS for a tidy profit of $2,530.00 ($110 wagered to win back $100).

There is only one more significant condition that needs to be added to this trend and that is: the team with the lower SOV must also have had a higher straight-up winning percentage in the previous season (LS WP).

Adding this 3rd and final condition creates a 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the ‘07 playoffs and has never been below the .500 mark versus the number in the past 14 years.

Interestingly enough, this situation has a fairly even split between playing on home teams and road teams as well as favourites and underdogs. Almost two-thirds of teams in the league have been involved since 1994.

The next Playoff system I would like to look at (#90) also relies on only 2 different conditions (in addition to the specification of looking at only Playoff games, of course). This trend has been almost perfect since 1994: 21-1 ATS, with it’s only loss coming in the 2003 post-season, when it went 5-1.

It’s success is based on teams that are looking for ‘revenge’ as a result of a SU LOSS in the last game played against their current opponent, either in the current season, or one of the previous 2 seasons. I should further clarify that the team in this situation must have also been a favourite in this previous game, making it an upset win for their current opponent.

Just a brief word about past meetings: When looking at these games, I basically break them into 2 different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This particular trend uses the LM2 classification (the last meeting occurred in the current, or last 2 seasons) while the LM4 type extends further back to include a previous meeting as far back as 4 seasons ago. Depending on the exact circumstance that is being addressed from a previous game, an LM4 classification will sometimes be more effective while in other cases, a game needs to be more recent and I therefore use the LM2 type.

I do analyze a total of 20 different stats from past meetings such as rushing and passing yardage, penalty yardage, time of possession and turnovers, etc. But, it’s usually the final score itself that provides the most insight into who will cover in a current game.

Past meetings that end up as an ‘upset’ or that finish with a 4th Quarter Comeback or a Clutch Win are exactly the kind of games that leave one team or the other looking forward to the next meeting where things can be ‘put right’.

And what better time of the year to exact some revenge than under the glare and spotlight of the NFL Playoffs? This is shown by the fact that since 1994, Playoff teams that lost SU as a favourite versus their current opponent in their last meeting (LM2 classification) are outstanding versus the line: 32-10 ATS (76.2%) for a profit of $2,100 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game).

For those that want to take things one step further: if we add the condition that this teams season over/under average (OV%) is at least 50% (meaning, they have gone over the number in at least half their games), the record for this situation becomes 21-1 (95.5%) ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details on both of these systems.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #65 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Opponent has a higher season Strength of Victory (SOV).

3) Last Seasons Winning Percentage (LS WP) greater than Opponent’s LS WP.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) None.

System Stats

ASMR: -0.2

Home%: 53.2

Dog%: 38.3

TDIS%: 62.5

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -1.22

Top Teams: SEA(6); NE(5); PHI(5); DEN(4)

System Records

Overall (Since ‘94): 40-6 ATS

2007 Season: 5-1 ATS

2006 Season: 3-1 ATS

2005 Season: 4-1 ATS

2004 Season: 4-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20–NE 21 SD 12 (SD +14) W

2007 WK19–SD 28 IND 24 (SD +9) W

2007 WK19–GB 42 SEA 20 (SEA +7) L

System #90 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Straight-up FAV loss versus this Opponent in Current or L2 Seasons (LM2).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Season Over% (OV%) >= 50

System Stats

ASMR: -1.8

Home%: 34.8

Dog%: 52.2

TDIS%: 43.8

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -0.33

Top Teams: DEN(3); PIT(3); IND(2); JAC(2)

System Records

Overall (Since ‘94): 21-1 ATS

2007 Season: 3-0 ATS

2006 Season: 1-0 ATS

2005 Season: 1-0 ATS

2004 Season: 1-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20–NYG 23 GB 20 (NYG +7.5) W

2007 WK19–NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W

2007 WK18–JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W



free bet picks

Chris Grisham asked:


Sports betting is an interesting undertaking that is triggered by its personal effects on sports. And this gives away the influence of a third person and places his bet as if his life lies on the result of the game. The presence of personal effects on the sports makes the game more interesting to watch out for by those audiences who also placed their bets. Hence, a sense of connection with the sports is developed by the betters than those who refuse to bet.

To gather and analyze sports betting information or sports picks is the initial betting strategy to make. Included in your research is to make a report on the individuals or teams who will be competing in the game, the type of bet, the odds offer and the value of the odds. These all serve as an important tool before hitting the betting station. To make the bet a little sensible, make sure that the odds offer is not less than the ratio of 2:1. If necessary, you may consider a selection with higher risk involved to raise the cost. This would mean more money to win, but since it takes a lot of risk, you might also lose more money from betting. You can do this once in a blue moon if only you feel like winning in the game.

The types of sports betting as mentioned in many sports picks are of three types, which all appear to be more popular as they are presented in a simple yet excellent possibility of winning. You have to learn all these three types of betting so you can easily take more steps forward. The soonest time you learned and mastered all these types of betting, the next thing you must do is to make rational decision. It is high time to choose the sports with higher chances of winning. Its background history, fair customer service, and the amount of payout are factors to consider in making a good decision. And it is only then that you will consider yourself as a guaranteed winner.

Smart betting or wise betting is the more appropriate term used for those sports betters who gather more sports picks first before placing their bet on a game. Joining the realm of sports betting should not only take a lot of guts and interest to it. Gathering and digesting the sports picks you find will help you become a guaranteed winner. Free sports betting tips will help you further in increasing your chances of winning in the game. Great sports analysts contribute much into these sports betting picks.

So if you are really aiming for success in the sports betting genre, keep feeding yourself with more and more sports picks, and by keeping them consistently in mind will take you into your winning success. More often than not, you will have to focus on the knowledge of the sports betting itself, information about the teams in a game, information for each individual player in a team, information about the skills and advantages of the coaching staff of a team, and other elements that are beyond the control of the teams, such as the mood of each player and the weather conditions.

In addition to that, for you “to really win consistently wagering on baseball or any sport for that matter you need to invest in a handicapper or system that uses trends, angles, experience, and a proven system to churn out winner after winner to bring in consistent profits.”



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Dennis Arthur asked:


Those of you that have had a chance to read some of my past articles may have come across a write-up discussing the predictive power behind Play-book Execution Penalties, which are flags thrown when plays break-down, usually on offense. Penalty calls that fall into this category include infractions such as: Intentional Grounding, Ineligible Receivers, Illegal Shifts and Motions, Too Many Men on the Field, and so on.

PBEP’s are not the only measure of team penalties that have been shown to be a profitable tool for spread handicapping: Offensive Holding calls are also the basis for a situation that has produced big profits over the past 7 years– a situation which has been highly effective even with only one Primary condition involved.

The condition I am speaking about is simple, and involves looking at teams that currently have a higher per-game average for Offensive Holding Penalties Against (OHPA) than their current opponent.

As an example, a team that has played 4 games and been flagged 9 times for Offensive Holding during this stretch, would have an OHPA of 2.25 (9 / 4) and would therefore be subject to this situations logic when facing an opponent with an OHPA average of 2.24 or less.

As you might expect, teams with a higher OHPA have not been a good wager over the past 7 seasons. You might be surprised; however, at just how badly they have fared.

Since 2001, teams with a higher OHPA have been a brutal 518-602 (46.3%) ATS when playing between Week 4 and 15, creating a profit of $3,220.00 at 10/11 odds with $110.00 wagers against the team in question. Not bad for a relatively simple situation with 1 Primary condition (OHPA > OP OHPA) and a ‘Secondary’ stipulation (i.e., ‘tightener’) excluding games very early, and very late in the season.

If there is one thing I have learned through the process of handicapping hundreds of NFL games over the past decade-or-so and studying countless trends during this same time period, it’s that, the stats that are ‘off the beaten track’ are usually the ones that produce the most profitable ’stand-alone’ trends’–meaning, those that are based one single condition or at least a minimal amount of conditions.

You will be hard-pressed to find another situation based on the more common measurements of team skill, such as rushing and passing stats, that could produce a similar result of +/- 85 wins ATS over a 1000-1100 game stretch, especially when it involves only a single ‘building block’, or, ‘Primary’ condition.

The reason for this is actually fairly simple: Most of us know that Vegas sets the NFL line based predominantly on public perception of team strength. This is a point which even most novice handicappers are aware of these days. Sportsbooks get their 10% ‘Vig’ regardless of who wins and losses and it’s always been in their best interest to set lines that produce balanced action which helps to minimize their immediate risk and maximize long-term profits.

With the knowledge that the point spread is more a product of public sentiment, than actual team skill levels in many cases, it becomes fairly safe to assume that the statistics that help to shape public opinion will probably be less effective at handicapping the spread than other, equally effective stats that perhaps ‘fly-below the radar’ of the vast majority of handicappers out there. Those who follow the stock market will be familiar with this concept, which is known as the efficient market theory.

As an example: if everyone made their wagers based solely on season-to-date points differential for each team, Vegas would correct their lines for this fact and using a method of choosing teams based on points scored alone, would ultimately yield a fat 0 dollars profit, if not a loss, over the long-haul.

This example is an over-simplification of course, and bettors will typically take many more things into consideration when making wagers. Having said that, there are certain stats and variables that are used more often-than-not by the average handicapper, week in and week out.

With-out a doubt, rushing and passing stats are the measures of choice for most novice-to-intermediate handicappers along with other obvious ones, such as, points scored and allowed; ‘power’ numbers; injury report data and recent head-to-head results. Most people base their wagering decisions on these kinds of stats because they are both easy to find and easy to understand.

As with the financial markets; however, following the ‘herd’ is more likely to lead you (and your bankroll) over the side of a cliff, rather than to the ‘pot of gold’, and the same rules apply when handicapping the sports-betting market.

This is not to say that basic statistics which focus on such things as the efficiency of a team’s rushing and passing game are to be ignored. On the contrary, I use these fundamental measurements (expressed as yards-per-play differentials) as part of a number of my successful situations. But, a number of other conditions usually need to be added in order to make them truly effective in predicting spread winners.

Getting back to penalties for a moment–beyond the basic penalty yardage totals shown for each team in the final boxscore, the specific types and frequency of certain penalties that teams take are essentially ignored by 99.5% of handicappers, and for the reasons discussed above, these key stats will also not factor too much into the line as a result.

Penalty calls are not the only facet of NFL team play that suffers from a lack of attention, despite their ability to reveal profitable situations versus the spread.

There happens to be quite a few other statistical gems that also fall into the ‘overlooked’ category and one such area concerns special teams play and more specifically, the king of this category–KRYF, which stands for Kick-off Return Yardage (Average) For.

KRYF is a critical stat that is on my ’shortlist’ of numbers that no good NFL handicapper should be with-out.

It acts as a barometer of overall special teams strength on the most important special teams play of all: the Kick-off return.

Kick-offs are a critical event because of their ability to switch a games momentum in a heart-beat and they provide an opportunity for a team to quickly gobble up crucial yardage that can leave them with decent field position, which is key to any chance of a victory, whether it be SU or ATS.

Nothing deflates a team that just finished putting points on the board more, than an opponent who runs back the ensuing kick-off for 40 yards and we all know the affect that a player like Chicago’s kick-return specialist, Devin Hester, can have on a game’s outcome in the blink of an eye.

The league average for KRYF is usually around 22 yards-per-return. Good teams will find themselves with an average near 25 while lousy return teams will be down near 19 yards-per-return.

KYRF is a stat that I use a lot, and it just happens to be the basis for one of the 2 remaining Primary conditions yet to be discussed. Including the original one involving OHPA, this powerful ‘trifecta’ of negative factors spells doom for the team unlucky enough to meet all of the criteria involved.

Here is how KRYF factors into things: I have found that teams that have a higher OHPA as well as a lower KRYF than their current opponent, have been a dismal 245-332 (42.5%) ATS since 2001, which almost doubles the profit produced from looking at OHPA alone, to $6250.00.

As with OHPA, it makes sense that teams at a disadvantage with regards to KRYF are a poor bet against the spread. The surprise here, once again, is just how profitable it has been historically, when betting against this team based on these 2 simple factors alone.

Now, we are not done quite yet. The final significant stipulation that I like to add also involves special teams, in this case– a comparison of Gross Punt Yardage and Net Punt Yardage concerning the current opponent of the team in question is included.

Subtracting Net Punt Yardage (the yardage achieved by a punt after the return is factored in along with any penalties against the punting team) from Gross Punt Yards (the distance a punt actually travelled from where the ball was snapped) is an excellent way to look at the ability of a team to: A) Execute a punt properly, and B) efficiently cover the ensuing return.

Teams with a poor punt coverage unit or that take a higher-than-average number of penalties during the punt itself; will see a wider gap between their GPYF and NPYF. Teams that have a below-average punter will also have a lower NPYF by extension, as shorter punts do carry a higher risk of big returns if coverage personnel do not have enough time to get into proper position.

The average gap between a team’s GPYF and their NPYF happens to be 6 yards.

By excluding opponents that have a GPYF at least 7 yards higher than their NPYF, we effectively remove opponents that have either poor coverage skills on punts, or a weak punter. Ultimately, this is yet another blow against the team already stinging from the other factors previously discussed.

In summary then: Teams that have a higher per-game average for Offensive Holding Penalties Against (OHPA) along with a lower per-game average for Kick-off Return Yardage For (KRYF)–both in relation to their current opponent–are 142-244 (36.8%) ATS since 2001, so long as this opponent’s Gross Punt Yardage figure is no more than 7 yards bigger than their Net Punt Yardage per-game average.

Based on these 3 Primary conditions (along with the earlier tightener that confines things to Week 4 thru 15), we have a trend that has been a consistent winner since ‘01 and has produced a profit of $8,780.00 at 10/11 odds during this time period.

Rounding things out, are 2 final limitations, one of which excludes teams who have faced a tough schedule season-to-date (SOS > 0.600) while the other excludes underdogs of >= 7 points. With the addition of these final 2 conditions, the record is reduced to 89-190 (31.9%) ATS–a killer situation that has been a deadly predictor of results ATS, 7 years running.

A brief look at the stats below will show that this is a very balanced trend that has played on every single team in the league, aside from one. And, it is split fairly evenly between favs and dogs as well as home and away teams.

Here are all the details.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend #109 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Offensive Holding Penalty Average Against (OHPA) > Opponent.

2) Kick-off Return Yardage Average For (KRYF) =7 Points.

3) Strength of Schedule (SOS), season-to-date, is

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Destiny Blaine asked:


Your phone rings. It’s him…again. You’ve told him once and you’ve told him twice. You’re not interested in betting his games but he still calls. You can’t shake him because someone gave him your number. What do you do?

The NFL picks from your sports handicapper may not be who you want to bet so if you are betting with one of these guys and you’re betting more than you want to bet, consider ditching your handicapper. The thing is, everyone needs to make a living and the sports handicappers calling you are making a pretty penny. In fact, they’re making several of them so there’s very little need for you to feel obligated to do business with them.

Today, there are some very aggressive sports handicappers out there. They want your business and they’ll ring your phone off the wall to get it but you don’t want to keep taking their calls if you are a recreational player. They will break you and when they do, they’ll still call with their picks on their game of the year.

If you’ve ever watched the movie Two for the Money, you can get a good idea of the scenes from a handicapper’s office but here’s something you should consider. The handicappers that call you and hustle you aren’t people you necessarily need to deal with for recreational play. These guys are in business for the big money. These are the guys who want you to bet a grand or better on the games you play because they want thirty percent for their picks.

NFL Picks you buy today should be picked up from an online handicapper. Someone you can ditch if the going gets rough. Yes, it’s great to be loyal but pay attention. If you get mixed up with the wrong handicapper blowing up your phone, you’ll end up paying and paying and paying for NFL picks you don’t want and other sports picks as well. There’s a way to bet the NFL and if you’re a recreational gambler, it’s not through the handicappers charging you thirty percent or more for game picks.



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