2007 Nfl Betting: Analyzing the Afc East

June 17, 2009

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Karol Lucan asked:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS): The Patriots probably were a wide receiver away from the Super Bowl last season so New England added Randy Moss (Oakland), Donte Stallworth (Philadelphia), Kelly Washington (Cincinnati) and Wes Welker (Miami) to Tom Brady’s ample toy chest. The Patriots also acquired TE Kyle Brady (Jacksonville) and RB Sammy Morris (Miami). The addition of LB Adalius Thomas (Baltimore), the gem of the free agent market, and the drafting of safety Brandon Meriweather in the first round, addressed pressing defensive needs. Those moves could be enough for a fourth Super Bowl appearance in seven seasons.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 92-52

ATS: 79-58-7

HF: 28-26-4

HD: 10-3-1

AF: 17-14

AD: 24-14-2

Sportsbook Buster: The visitor in the Patriots-Jets rivalry is 13-3 ATS, the last 16 meetings.

Sports Betting Angle: New England is a solid 24-14-2 ATS as a road underdog, something it will likely be in Indianapolis, Nov. 4.

NEW YORK JETS (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS): Eric Mangini took a team that was 4-12 the previous year to the playoffs but what can the ambitious young head coach do for an encore? For starters, the Jets must improve a weak pass rush. Other defensive needs were addressed by draft picks Darrelle Revis, a cornerback, and David Harris, a linebacker. Chad Pennington must remain healthy and New York needs to improve a running game that ranked 30th in average gain per rush (3.5) if the offense is to be feared but if all that happens, another wild card is a possibility.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 78-66

ATS: 75-61-8

HF: 24-20-2

HD: 12-12-1

AF: 9-7-1

AD: 29-20-4

Sportsbook Buster: The Jets have lost six straight games ATS versus the Ravens, who they play in Baltimore, Sept. 16.

Sports Betting Angle: New York has covered seven straight games against division rival Miami.

BUFFALO BILLS (7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS): The Bills had three huge holes to fill when RB Willis McGahee, LB London Fletcher and CB Nate Clements departed. Head Coach Dick Jauron feels he addressed two of those needs in the draft with RB Marshawn Lynch (Cal) and LB Paul Posluszny (Penn State). Clements’ spot will be filled from within. The schedule—-with no losing teams in the first eight games-—will test the revamped Bills early. Buffalo would like J.P. Losman to hand off as much as he throws, especially behind a huge offensive line. That said, improving on last year’s 7-9 record will be no easy task.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 67-77

ATS: 72-67-5

HF: 24-21-1

HD: 10-13-1

AF: 8-7-1

AD: 28-26-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Bills are an amazing 13-1 ATS the week after playing the Patriots.

Sports Betting Angle: Buffalo has lost seven straight games ATS versus Pittsburgh (Sept. 16).

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS): New Head Coach Cam Cameron did a fine job with the San Diego offense but there’s less talent in Miami, where Trent Green (Kansas City) will be the new starter at quarterback and Ronnie Brown will be handed the ball. The offensive line must be reworked but the defense is solid, if aging. NFL Defensive Player of the Year Jason Taylor will be joined by Joey Porter in a 3-4 alignment that brings pressure on opposing QBs. Generally, teams need a year to adjust to a new system so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Miami struggled in its first season under Cameron.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 79-75

ATS: 71-70-3

HF: 28-29-1

HD: 7-7

AF: 13-9

AD: 24-23-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Dolphins have covered nine of their last 10 games as an underdog of six or more points.

Sports Betting Angle: Miami is only 6-26 as a favorite in its last two games of the season.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

First of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the AFC North

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