Handicapping Sports Injuries

May 2, 2009


Jerry Fox asked:

We take all factors into consideration when handicapping sports investment opportunities for our sports handicapping services, including injuries. We also strongly recommend clients give these significant elements a final check for any late-breaking developments prior to wagering, by reviewing our Injury Reports.

While it is important to be aware of and to consider injuries when analyzing games, PRO INFO SPORTS contends that the general sports gambling public often over-reacts when a star player is out of a contest, providing solid investment opportunities for us to deliver to our clients.

Linesmakers usually adjust the spread several points to compensate for an injury to a big-name player to invite a balance of wagers on both teams. Frequently, we will form a strong contrarian opinion in such situations for several reasons.

First of all, there simply is not as big of a talent difference between the 1st and 2nd-stringers as the public perceives. College reserves are former high school stars, while pro reserves are former college stars. They come in fresh, rested, and eager to “play, perform, and prove” their value.

Secondly, the other players on the squad can usually be counted on to pull together for additional concentration, execution, and teamwork. They know that they have to perform at a higher level in their star’s absence, they don’t want to let the hurt teammate down, and/or they want to show that they are more than a “one-man team”.

Finally, their opponent may well be ill-prepared emotionally for the game, thinking they can relax and knowing the challenge of facing the other team’s star player is not there.

These factors are most prominent and under-valued by the public gambling on sports in the first game missed by an injured star player. The handicapping value is lessened in the succeeding games if the injury is prolonged. The lines are re-adjusted resulting from the solid play by the reserve and teammates, opponents not overlooking them, and the eventual physical, emotional, and psychological let down of the team with the injured star.

Besides star player injuries, unit injuries are a very substantial consideration that we take into account when handicapping games. Having 2 or more “non-star” players from one unit of the team injured is usually much more detrimental to a squad than if a single “superstar” is out. While not many public star football players toil on the offensive or defensive lines, a team with a hurting and depleted line unit may not be able to run or pass the ball effectively, or be able to stop the other team’s attack, especially if the injuries play into their opponent’s strength. An example would be a high-powered passing team likely having great success against a team with a hobbled secondary.

These injury principles are generalities and all factors must be considered when analyzing sports investment opportunities, but the monitoring and scrutinizing of these situations and circumstances are examples of how PRO INFO SPORTS gains a significant handicapping advantage and uses the information to help determine the strength of certain selections according to our Money Management strategy.

CALL 516-852-4502 If you are serious about making MONEY....


Comments are closed.