Florida St at Florida 11-28-09

November 28, 2009

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Florida was in this very same position last year. With an SEC Championship Game against Alabama just one week away, the Gators clubbed a bowl-bound Florida State team, 45-15. They were 16-point road favorites in that one but this time around, they’re giving close to 25 points at home to their in-state rivals. We all know how porous the Seminole defense has been this year, allowing four touchdowns or more in seven of the 11 games.

However, the Florida offense averaged only 28 ppg in conference play in ’09 after going for 45 ppg a season ago. If the Seminoles can score around 17-21 points, it’s likely they’ll be able to stay within the number. Florida State has won four of its last five games so the team is obviously coming together even without Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The Seminoles are 6-5 SU but just 3-7 ATS this season, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. They are 6-1 to the over in their last seven. The Gators are 11-0 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in ’09 with seven unders in their last nine games. They are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games but just 3-5-1 in their last nine. Florida is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five meetings.

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Free Pick Florida St +24.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Freepick1.com Editor


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