Free NCAA Football Picks Boise at New Mexico State 10-2-2010

September 30, 2010

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Boise State Broncos at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday October 3rd 2010 8 PM EST

The Line: Boise -43

When you break down a game like this, two questions are raised. How good is team a) Boise, and how bad is team b) New Mexico State. The answer in this one is very, to both questions. Boise State is, once again undefeated. Their National Championship resume is growing, having beaten two ranked teams this season. New Mexico State? Not so much. They have been pounded into the ground by three teams that are irrelevant to the national scene. Although they haven’t been beaten by 43, it is going to be tough to hold off the Broncos.

Keys to the Game

  • Kellen Moore might walk away with a Heisman this year. Some signature victories, like the one over Virginia Tech, are certainly more important than others, but the stats all go in the same collective pile at the end of the season. I would think Boise would try to use this game to inflate his stats. Their schedule remains relatively easy due to their weak conference, but destroying a team by fifty is exactly what Moore needs to make his numbers astronomical. He has a complete understanding of where everyone is on the field. With a pro football mentality, Moore could easily throw for 400 yards in this one, as long as he is left in the game throughout the entire beating.
  • New Mexico State likes to throw the ball, and they aren’t very good at it. Matt Christian has played relatively well, but his competition has been less than impressive. He doesn’t stand out to me as a great passer, although his QB rating is 112.53. His yards per attempt are just over six, which means his numbers are inflated by checking the ball down. Boise is going to eliminate that entirely. Their swarming defense does not let teams pick them apart. Airing it out a little bit is going to equate to turnovers, early and often. The way these sort of games get out of control is when Goliath gets a short field.
  • Expect the snow ball effect to make an appearance. The last thing New Mexico State wants to do is panic. That being said, that could very well be the first thing they do. If the wheels come off in the first half, the Aggies are in for a long night. Once Boise gets rolling they could put up sixty points. In my sports picks I usually try to shy away from saying a team is going to be beaten by 50, but that could easily be the case. New Mexico State has given up against each of their opponents this season. The fight is going to leave their team early. Hopefully no one gets hurt.

Wrap up:

Boise knows only one speed. Full speed. They are going to go 100 percent the entire game every snap. That isn’t good new for New Mexico state. Even if Boise puts in their backups, they will be going full throttle. There is no mercy rule in college football and 43 points is almost a slap in the face to Boise. Broncos roll by 50.

Free College Football Pick: Boise -43


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