Nevada at Boise State 11-27-09

November 27, 2009


The sixth-ranked Broncos go for their 12th straight victory when they host the surging Wolf Pack on Friday night. While undefeated, Boise State is running out of time to impress Bowl Championship Series voters. Usually there is only one team from a non-BCS conference that receives a bid for one of the top bowls and the Broncos currently trail No. 4 TCU.

Boise State (11-0, 6-0) could make a good case for moving up this week, though. It faces a Nevada team that has won eight straight and has averaged 55.6 points over the last five games, in large part due to a prolific running game that is the best in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Broncos and Wolf Pack are the only undefeated teams in the WAC and Friday’s winner would earn at least a share of the conference title.

If the last two meetings have anything to do with this match up, expect a very close game with either team strong enough to post the victory. Boise State has not lost a regular season home game since 2001 but that doesn’t mean Nevada has zero chance. Remember, the Wolf Pack came into Bronco Stadium two years ago and took Boise State to four overtimes. This year, both teams are on fire with a combined 19 wins. Nevada has scored 50 points or more in its last three while the Broncos have done the same in their last two. Boise State’s passing game should dominate a porous Nevada secondary but the ‘Pack should be able to run all day on the Broncos the same way Fresno State did over two months ago. The team that has the ball last will most likely win, which sets up nicely for a Wolf Pack cover since they’re getting double-digits.

The Wolf Pack are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS this season, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The Broncos are 11-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in ’09 but just 3-3 ATS in their last six. Boise State is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings vs. Nevada with the last two going over the total.  This should be a close game, but i still think Boise St wins by 2 touchdowns.

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Free Pick Boise State -13.5

By Lawrence Tate Associate Editor

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