Ohio at Buffalo 11-10-09

November 10, 2009


The fans at UB Stadium will be treated to a game between the Ohio Bobcats and the Buffalo Bulls when they take their seats on Tuesday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 1-point favorites versus the Bobcats, while the game’s total is sitting at 46.

Theo Scott’s touchdown pass with just over three minutes left gave Ohio a 20-17 win over Ball State in Week 9.

The Bobcats did not cover the 5.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day’s posted total of 44.

Jeffvon Gill ran for 172 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown for Buffalo in its 30-29 loss to Bowling Green in Week 10.

Bowling Green cashed as 3-point road underdogs, while the the game played OVER the 57.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

The Bulls have stampeded the opposition for 410.9 total ypg, but surprisingly that has led to a modest 23.8 ppg. The ground game is churning out 162.0 ypg, but it has been the play of Zach Maynard and the passing attack that has really propelled this unit. Maynard has completed 59.7 percent of his passes this year for 2,147 yards and 15 touchdowns, but the signal caller has also tossed 11 interceptions. Maynard does possess three solid options, beginning with Naaman Roosevelt, who is leading the team with 62 receptions for 789 yards and six touchdowns. Jesse Rack has also hauled in six touchdowns, while Brett Hamlin has grabbed 53 passes for 720 yards. The ground game has progressively improved and that is due to the play of Ike Nduka, who is currently leading the squad with 598 yards and six touchdowns on 6.2 yards per attempt. The Bulls racked up 411 total yards in their last matchup against Bowling Green, but the team still fell to the Falcons. Surprisingly leading the ground attack was Jeffvon Gill, who posted 172 yards and one score. As for Nduka, he was limited to just 30 yards and one score in the loss. Maynard tossed a touchdown in the setback, but the signal caller completed just 13- of-27 passes for 149 yards.

On the defensive side of the football the Bulls are holding opponents to just 353.7 total ypg, but teams are still averaging 26.1 ppg. The Bulls are surrendering 215.1 passing ypg on the season, but the team’s performance against the run has been the real issue, as the defense is allowing 138.6 ypg on the ground and has already surrendered 17 rushing touchdowns. However, in the team’s recent loss to Bowling Green it was the Bulls inability to stop the pass that led to their defeat. Buffalo allowed 313 yards through the air in the setback, but also surrendered three rushing touchdowns. Buffalo did force two turnovers in the contest, but allowed BGSU to convert on 7-of-14 third down chances and 5-of-6 red zone attempts. Domonic Cook led the way with eight tackles in the loss, and now has 44 stops on the year. Justin Winters has been the top player on this unit however, as the linebacker has racked up a team- high 67 tackles, and has also collected 3.5 sacks.

Current streak:
Buffalo has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Ohio: 6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Buffalo: 3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS

Ohio most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing within the conference are 6-4

Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Ohio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio’s last 5 games
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Ohio
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

Next up:

Ohio home to Northern Illinois, Saturday, November 21

Buffalo at Miami (Ohio), Wednesday, November 18

The line opened at 3 and with 67% of the public betting Ohio and moving it down to 1. I love going against the public in this situation.

FREE PICK: Buffalo -1

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