Falcons vs. Buccaneers free pick

September 25, 2011

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If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Sunday when the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet at Raymond James Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game’s total is sitting at 46.

In their last action, Atlanta was a 35-31 winner at home against the Eagles. They covered the 1–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (66) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

The Buccaneers were a 24-20 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Vikings. They covered the 1–point spread as underdogs, while the total score (44) made winners of OVER bettors.

Team records:
Atlanta: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Atlanta most recently:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 7-3

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Next up:
Atlanta at Seattle, Sunday, October 2
Tampa Bay home to Indianapolis, Monday, October 3

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