Free NFL Pick: New York Jets at Cleveland 11-14-2010

November 10, 2010

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New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Sunday November 14th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: New York Jets -3

Overview:

The Browns have caused quite a stir, upsetting the Saints and Patriots in their last two games. Despite being 3-5, the Browns have only played one team that doesn’t have a winning record. They face another juggernaut this week when they take on the 6-2 New York Jets, who narrowly escaped defeat against the Lions last week.

Keys to the Game:

  • Payton Hillis is the Cleveland Browns offense. He took it upon himself to beat the Patriots, racking up 184 yards and two touchdowns. Hillis is a hard runner who hits the hole with purpose. He is most effective between the tackles, but looks to bounce his runs to the outside when he gets to the second level and beyond. Hillis might see his success come to a screeching halt this week when he takes on the New York Jets.
  • The Jets allow only 87.4 yards a game. The Browns are a running football team and the Jets do not need to worry about any receiver having a big day. This allows the Jets to load up the box, which will make it difficult for Hillis to have a big day. Devin Harris, Bart Scott, and Jim Leonhard are all going to have their full attention on Hillis throughout the game. If they can shut down the run game, the Browns cannot compete.
  • Colt McCoy is a winner. His role is limited in the offense, but the Browns have to like what they see. The winningest quarterback in college football history sems to have brought his gamer attitude to the professional level. While he has holes in his game, McCoy seems to have command of the offense. He knocked off Drew Brees and Tom Brady already this season. That being said, the Browns need to continue to limit his throws, especially this week. The Jets are going to constantly send blitzes from everywhere. Not only will this confuse the rookie quarterback, it will also help shut down Hillis. McCoy doesn’t have the targets or the experience to handle the heat the Jets are going to apply. Having him drop back too often is setting him up for failure.
  • Mark Sanchez had a career game last week, posting his first 300 yard game of his career. Sanchez look comfortable in the offense and bounced back after struggling against Green Bay last week. The Browns are similar in pass coverage to the Lions, who Sanchez was able to pick apart. With Sanchez getting in a rhythm with his receivers, the Jets are becoming a complete offense.
  • Ladanian Tomlinson has to get back on track. Picking up 50 yards a game is not going to be good enough for Tomlinson and the Jets if they want to bring home a Lombardi trophy. The Jets were the best rushing team in the NFL last year. They have the offensive line and the running back to punish the Browns this week. They need Tomlinson to get back on track and start putting up the huge numbers he was posting earlier in the year.

Wrap Up:

The Browns have really made a statement the last two weeks. They were double digit underdogs in each game and ended up winning outright in both games. If they can beat the Jets this week, they move one game under .500. The Jets can’t sleep on the Browns like the Patriots and Saints did. Look for Braylon Edwards to have a big day against his former team. While I want to take the Browns, three points simply isn’t enough against the Jets. They believe they can win, but knocking off the Saints, Patriots, and Jets consecutively just seems downright impossible.

Free NFL Pick: New York Jets -3


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