Free NFL Picks Arizona at San Diego 10-3-2010

September 30, 2010

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Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers

Sunday October 3rd 2010

The Line: San Diego -8 1/2

Overview:

The Cardinals won by a narrow margin last week against Oakland. They come into the game at 2-1, though their schedule has not been difficult. They played one good team and two struggling teams, so their matchup against the Chargers is intriguing. This is the first team they have played that is in the middle of the pack. The Chargers won their only home game of the season. They lost to the Seahawks and the Chiefs away, but those are difficult places to play in. Both of these teams’ futures are still up in the air.

  • The Chargers can throw the ball, even without Vincent Jackson. Philip Rivers already has over a thousand yards in the air, even without his number one target. The Cardinal secondary isn’t horrible, but it isn’t elite either. The Chargers face a much easier test passing against the Cardinals than they did last week against the Raiders. Look for Malcom Floyd to have another big game. In my sports picks last week, I suspected the Chargers would utilize Antonio Gates against an inexperienced Seahawk secondary. He ended up with 109 yards and a touchdown. He is still Rivers’ go to guy, especially in the red zone.
  • Larry Fitzgerald should be top 5 in receiving yards…right? As of right now he is 48th. I understand that Derek Anderson is not Kurt Warner, but how hard can it be to put the ball in a spot where Fitz can catch it.. Buster Davis, Danny Amendola, and even fellow teammate Steve Breaston have more receptions. To make matters worse, he is third in targets. They are trying to get him the ball and they just can’t. This is no fault of Fitzgeralds. They need to figure out a way to get their best weapon the ball if they want a chance to win football games.
  • Mike Tolbert has big shoes to fill. In an odd sequence of circumstances, Mike Tolbert has become the new stallion in the backfield for the Chargers. L.T. was seen as expendable and rookie Ryan Matthews has sustained an injury. That leaves Tolbert. He has filled in nicely in the absence of Matthews, averaging 5.2 yards a carry. The Cardinals run defense isn’t what it used to be since they got rid of Karlos Dansby. Tolbert could find himself running at will if the Chargers gear up to stop Rivers and see Tolbert as an after thought.

Wrap up:

The Chargers have not proven anything to anyone except for Vegas. They played one good game against a pathetic Jacksonville team and suddenly Vegas throws out a huge 8 1/2 point spread. I understand they are at home. I understand the Cardinals haven’t beaten anyone. The Chargers are grossly overrated here. The Cardinals lose in a close one, but this will be a one score game throughout.

Free NFL Pick: Arizona +8 1/2


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