Free NFL Picks Denver at Tennessee 10-3-2010

September 29, 2010

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Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

October 3rd 2010 1 PM EST

Line: Tennessee -7

The Titans like to run the ball and the Broncos get it done in the air. Not many people realize the Broncos have the number one passing offense in the NFL. Part of this is due to their mediocre play, but it is impressive all things considered. With no Jay Cutler or Brandon Marshall, some sort of regression would have been likely. You could credit this to garbage statistics, but Kyle Orton throwing for over 1000 yards in three games is impressive.

  • If Chris Johnson gets loose, the Titans win, and win big. He rushed for 142 yards against the Raiders in their 38-13 victory. He rushed for 125 yards in their 29-10 victory over the Giants. The Steelers held him to 34 points and they lost. When CJ gets going, Vince Young becomes an after thought. Let’s be real here. The Broncos are not the Steelers. I see them at the same level as the Oakland Raiders. Since Elvis left the building, they still need that true pass rusher coming off the edge. I don’t think they can bottle up Johnson, he’s just too fast. holding him to under 150 in this game could be a feasible goal.
  • The Broncos don’t have a terrible run defense, but Vince Young is going find holes in their secondary. Champ Bailey is a legend, but the Bronco defensive backs are all declining. Ten years ago, their pass defense would have been the best in the NFL hands down. Now, especially without having any kind of a pass rush, they are going to struggle in this one. The Titans don’t have a big name receiver, but Vince Young creates more time with his feet. This is going to give them ample time to get open. With Chris Johnson being the safety outlet, you could see Vince young hang up a decent amount of yards. He is going to get time to throw because of the poor defensive line play, but the fact that he can move is going make Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey wear out early.
  • Look for some trickery. The Broncos are a perfect team to practice the read option that the Titans were so effective with last year. If those plays break open, the Titans should be able to run away with it, literally. The Titans will run the ball until the opposition has an answer. So far, only the Steelers have. It’s unlikely, but if the Broncos can bottle up CJ and Vince Young, they won’t rely on Vince Young to run the offense like they did against the Steelers. They will use deception to run their way back into the game, as that is what makes them most effective.

Overview:

Jeff Fisher needs to flex his muscles in this one. Getting Chris Johnson to reach upwards of 200 yards is not out of the question. When the Broncos lose, they lose bad. When the Titans win, they win big. I think the Broncos are worse than they are perceived. Sure, they looked good against the Jags, but that isn’t impressive to me. I went with the Titans last week in my sports picks, and they shredded the Giants. I have to assume they will do the same to Denver.

Free NFL Pick: Tennessee -7


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