Free NFL Picks Detroit at Green Bay 10-3-2010

October 3, 2010

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

October 3rd 2010 1 PM EST

Line: Green Bay -14 1/2

Overview:

The Packers are coming off a disappointing loss to Chicago last week. Surely the Packers will want to bounce back and destroy the Lions this week. The Lions have failed to win a game, but they have shown they have some fight in their team. Are the Packers really 14 1/2 points better than the Lions?

Keys to the Game:

  • Jahvid Best has to play on Sunday to give the Lions a chance. With Matthew Stafford out, the Lions can’t afford to lose another big time player on their offense. The Lions love to go to Best in the red zone. Should they be fortunate enough to get inside the twenty, having Best in their backfield is going to make it easier on Shaun Hill.
  • The Lions don’t do a bad job of keeping it close. It seems as though their young talent has brought a competitive spark the team sorely missed the last few years. Now, they have a lot of players that are hungry, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They suffered a big loss last week, but even the Vikings failed to put them away by more than two scores. This is an improvement for a Lions team who recently had the worst team in NFL history.
  • Clay Matthews leads the NFL in sacks. He didn’t record a sack in week three, which makes this more impressive. He is great at getting to the quarterback because he is versatile. He can come off either edge, making it difficult to double team him without seeing the defensive front before hand. The guess work makes it difficult to know where Matthews is coming from and how to stop him when the plays are coming from upstairs. If the Lions don’t account for Matthews, they may need to reach a little further down their depth chart, because Shaun hill is in for a rough day.

Wrap Up:

The Lions got the nod from me last week to cover by 12 against the Vikings. They didn’t, but they came close. Although I don’t think the Lions have a chance, they should cover this week. Anything above six is a huge spread for an NFL game. 14 1/2 is a spread given for a game that features a Super Bowl contender and the worst team in the NFL.The Packers are a notch below the top and the Lions are a notch above the bottom. Close, but no cigar.

Free NFL Pick: Detroit Lions +14 1/2


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