Free NFL Picks Indianapolis at Jacksonville 10-3-2010

September 30, 2010

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday October 3rd 2010 4:15 PM PST

The Line: Indianapolis -8 1/2

Overview:

The Colts are on fire. They seem to be in mid-season form. The Jaguars won their first game against the Broncos, but have since shut down, losing their last two game by 25 points a piece. The Jaguars are at home, but with one of the worst fan bases in the NFL, it probably won’t matter.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Jaguars aren’t running the ball like they want to. Being in the middle of the pack in the NFL in rushing is not going to be good enough for Jacksonville. They don’t have talent on their offense, aside from Maurice Jones-Drew. If Drew has a fantastic day, they stand a chance to be effective. If not, they are doomed. The Colts have a mediocre run defense, but if the Jaguars can’t find a way to capitalize, they aren’t going to put up points. In their game against the Eagles last week, Jones-Drew had 88 yards on 22 carries. This may not seem so bad, if you are any team except for the Jaguars. They only scored three points in the entire game and lost 28-3. David Gerrard had a good year once upon a time, but he doesn’t have anyone to throw to and his accuracy is trumped by many aspiring junior high quarterbacks.
  • Peyton Manning is on the Colts. The Colts are one dimensional just like the Jaguars are. Without Peyton Manning, they have no shot against anyone. The fact of the matter is, nobody can really stop Manning. He makes the offense so versatile, that the elimination of one facet of their game plan does not spell disaster. Austin Collie is leading the NFL in receiving. Don’t think for a second he is that talented. Sure, he has above average hands and he runs sure routes, but most of it is because Manning knows where he can create mismatches within a defense. Manning will take whatever a defense gives him. The Jaguars are going to give him a lot. The Colts scored a season low 24 points in week one. I expect them to score a season high this week. Look for something in the high thirties.
  • The Colts defense is not as bad as their numbers say they are. When Peyton Manning is on the field, sometimes the offense scores quickly, making the defense go back on the field in a hurry. They are bound to let up points with all of the opportunities being given to the opposition. In the Jaguars case, they punt the ball to their opponent frequently, giving the other team the chance to score frequently. When the Colts score, the other team has a chance to do something. When the Colts scored 38 points against the Giants, that means they kicked off to the Giants eight times, including half time or kickoff. The Giants turned it into 14 points, though the Colts defense dominated the Giants throughout most of the game.

Wrap up:

This one isn’t going to be close. The Colts, in my opinion, are the best team in the league right now. In my sports picks last week, I picked the Colts to wreck the Broncos. They did, so I am not going to hesitate when I pick the Colts to beat the Jaguars by 8 1/2. They have coasted to victories in each game they played a weak opponent. This shouldn’t be any different. Colts win big.

Free NFL Pick: Colts -8 1/2


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