Free NFL Picks Jacksonville at Buffalo 10-10-2010

October 10, 2010


Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

October 10th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Jacksonville -1 1/2


The Bills got close to winning a game this season in week one. Since then it has been all down hill. The Jaguars feel ten feet tall right now after dismantling Peyton Manning and the Colts to give them their second victory of the season. This game isn’t in prime time. Maybe ten thousand people in the world are going to watch, but alas, I will be one of them and every game, no matter how futile, deserves an analysis.

Keys to the Game:

  • David Gerrard has to play well in order for the Jags to win. In this league, you can’t point to the hole and say, “We’re running their, try to stop us.” Defenses are too big and too fast to over power in this league. Maurice Jones-Drew is a great back, but he can’t do it all. If you remember back to 2007 when the Jaguars went 11-5. Gerrard made the Pro Bowl that year. He might not be an elite quarterback, but his success results in a Jaguar victory frequently. He went 17-22 against the Colts last week and threw two touchdowns without an interception. That is a fantastic performance from him. By managing the game effectively, he opens the door for Maurice Jones-Drew to be at his best. Safe, structured, Jaguar football is going to be the recipe for success in this one. Marcedes Lewis should be Gerrard’s favorite target.
  • The Bills leading rusher this season is Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is now a Seahawk, so the leading rusher who is active on their roster is now Ryan Fitzpatrick, with 92 yards. I don’t know what to make of this. The Bills drafted C.J. Spiller in the first round. He has all the tools to be great in the NFL. Why they choose to limit his role, I will never know. He only has 14 carries on the entire season. They already have the worst passing offense in the entire NFL. If they don’t start utilizing Spiller out of the backfield, they are going to have the worst passing and rushing offense in the league.
  • The Bills also have the worst defense against the run this year, allowing 174 yards a game. Nothing is going right in Buffalo and Maurice Jones-Drew is going to make sure it stays that way. He has the ability to assert himself early in a game. The Jags aren’t a juggernaut team in the NFL, but they have an opportunity to look like one this week.

Wrap up:

The Bills have had a challenging schedule thus far, but they have not put up a fight in any of their last three games. They don’t play well on the road, they don’t play well at home. The Jaguars surprised a lot of people when they took out the Colts last week. It isn’t going to surprise anyone when they take out the Bills. Not nearly a big enough spread.

Free NFL Pick: Jacksonville -1 1/2

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