Free NFL Picks Kansas City at Indianapolis 10-10-2010

October 10, 2010

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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

October 10th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Indianapolis -8

Overview:

The Chiefs have shocked everyone and remain the league’s lone unbeaten team. The Colts have shocked everyone and are 2-2 after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Is it possible Peyton Manning could be sub .500 after five weeks of football? Is it possible the Chiefs could be 4-0, including a victory over the storied Colts and their longtime division bully Chargers?

Keys to the Game:

  • The dramatic improvement has little to do with personnel moves on the field and a lot to do with who the Chiefs brought in behind the scenes. Romeo Crenell fizzled as a head coach. Charlie Weis might be the worst head coach in Notre Dame history. Both of them are top flight coordinators in the NFL. Weis is an offensive genius. Crenell makes the most out of the personnel he has on defense. Todd Haley put his ego aside and brought in two guys who know exactly what they want to do and how to game plan. The Chiefs have been solid all on both sides of the ball and on special teams. They don’t have the talent to be considered one of the best teams in football yet, but the coaches are in place. In a few years this team could be dangerous.
  • To the Colts credit, they have only been at home one game. Sure, last year it didn’t matter, but maybe this year the Colts need some confidence. They suffered a tough loss against the Texans and came back the next week to toy with the Giants the next week. Manning and the Colts let the Jaguars get the best of them last week, they will be looking for revenge this week at home against the Chiefs. The Colts aren’t accustomed to getting off to a slow start. I’m not sure what the struggles should be credited to, but the Colts are about to enter panic mode. Their schedule after Kansas City is going to be challenging to say the least. Another bump in the road and the Colts are going to have serious ground to make up.
  • The Chiefs struggle against the pass and the Colts are going to be able to take advantage. Even the most experienced defenders in the league can easily be taken advantage of by Manning. With Eric Berry experiencing some growing pains, it’s going to be interesting to see how Manning utilizes Dallas Clark in coverage. The Chiefs are solid against the run, so they can focus most of their attention solely on pass defense, where they will need to compensate for their inadequacies. If you have Manning in fantasy football, this will be a good week for you.

Wrap up:

I like the Colts in this one. I can’t see them dropping to 2-3. They are too talented and Kansas City is due for a loss. That being said, saying K.C. can’t keep it close might be selling them short. I like the Colts to win, but I think four points is a more reasonable spread. Kansas City has a coaching staff that has the ability to change up their game plan mid game. After getting two weeks to plot against the Colts and seeing them fall to the Jags, the Chiefs are going to come out swinging. The Colts survive, but just barely.

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs +8


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