Free NFL Picks: New York Jets at Detroit 11-07-2010

November 4, 2010


New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Sunday November 7th, 2010

Line: New York -4 1/2


The 5-2 New York Jets are 3-0 on the road this year. They let one slip away last week, failing to put up any point points at their home stadium against the Green Bay Packers. They will look to rebound against the 2-5 Lions, who despite having five losses, have only one home loss. That loss came against Philadelphia in week two, where the Lions lost by only three points. The Lions haven’t lost at home by the given spread all season long. Will Sunday be the day?

Keys to the Game:

  • Mark Sanchez wasn’t as bad as his numbers suggested against Green Bay. The Jets had a case of the drops on Sunday and failed to catch passes that were right on their numbers. There was one screen in particular where Shonn Greene had four blockers in front of him on a screen that was set up beautifully and he dropped the ball. Several of the drops came at crucial junctures in the football game. All Sanchez can do is put the ball where it needs to be. The receiving corp needs to redeem themselves this Sunday by making plays for their quarterback.
  • With 6.5 sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown, Ndamukong Suh is officially the Lion King. The sure fire rookie of the year has terrorized teams, giving the Lions defense a little swagger. Last week, he ruined my parlay by racking up two sacks, getting to the quarterback four times, as well as scooping and scoring on a 17 yard fumble recovery. The Jets are a good measuring stick for Suh. While he may be a dominant defensive tackle, the Jets are the ultimate smash mouth team. They have a solid offensive line and despite being relatively quiet in the last few games, the Jets have one of the most feared ground attacks in the NFL. Suh and Sam Bradford headline a draft class that is changing the face of the NFL.
  • The Jets need to get their swagger back when they run the football. Neither Shonn Greene or Ladanian Tomlinson has been able to get going in the last two games. They won by only four against the Broncos and failed to score against the Packers, even after a bye week. We have seen a decline in the Jets performance. The easiest way for them to get back on track is to break a few big runs. All year long they have dominated teams on the ground. The Lions happen to allow 130 rushing yards a game. The Jets need to get L.T. the ball somewhere in the 20 carries range. He has the potential to take over this game by himself.
  • Matthew Stafford looked remarkable in his comeback. He threw four touchdowns and only one interception in their win over Washington. While Stafford showed he can get it done against the Redskins, the Jets are a different beast. They may be average at defending the pass statistically, but they make their presence resonate on every snap. The Jets are nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. To start, Rex Ryan sends blitzes form every direction, which is going to be a huge problem for Matthew Stafford, who will likely have a tough time deciphering through blitz reads. Even if he does, his receivers are going to have a tough time breaking away from the defensive backs. The Jets are one of the few teams in the NFL who can play man coverage with their corners and allow their safeties to help elsewhere. Darrelle Revis shuts down everything in site and Antonio Cromartie would easily be a number one corner on most teams. This gives the Jets all the flexibility in the world and Matthew Stafford will need to bring his ‘A’ game in order to compete in this one.
  • Calvin Johnson has posted back to back 100 yard games. He is having a career year, already finding the end zone eight times. While his numbers are amazing, what makes them even more spectacular is that Shaun Hill was on the other end of most of his passes. While Hill did an admirable job stepping in while Stafford was hurt, he doesn’t have the skill set of Stafford. Stafford and Johnson both have their best football in front of them. Seeing the connection working so nicely has to be exciting for the Lions organization. While he won’t have 100 yards in this one, Johnson is a tall task for even Darrelle Revis.

Wrap Up:

While the Lions show promise for the future, the Jets are angry. Despite being fiery to begin with – all the way from head coach, to running back, to defensive back and so on- the Jets have reached a new level of anger. They are frustrated and that could spell disaster for Detroit. While I want to go with the Lions, I can’t see them holding off the Jets this week. If Tomlinson can get something going early, it won’t be a one score game. Don’t expect this one to be a defensive struggle like last week.

Free NFL Pick: New York Jets -4 1/2

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