Free NFL Picks Seattle at St. Louis 10-3-2010

September 29, 2010

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Sunday October 3rd 1 PM EST

Line: Seattle -1 1/2

Overview:

St ouis is coming off their biggest win in recent memory. Defeating the Donovan Mcnabb Redskins as a heavy underdog obviously impressed Vegas. The line on this game is only 1 1/2. The Seahawks are 2-1, having beaten the Chargers and the 49ers. Why after only one victory is the spread such a small margin? St. Louis is starting to look like a real football team, and Seattle has over achieved.

Keys to the Game:

  • The Seahawks are away.Qwest field and Arrowhead allow the Chiefs and the Seahawks to beat teams with more talent because of their home field advantages. The Seahawks beat what I see as a better team last weak because their home field is so loud it creates confusion amongst opposing offenses. The Seahawks won both of their games at home and lost their only game on the road, giving the Broncos their only win of the season. The Seahawks are not going to be road warriors this year, as they clearly need the support of their fans. The advantage is not as great for the Rams, but it is more about what the Seahawks lose by being away, than what the Rams gain from being at home.
  • Sam Bradford is the real deal. His numbers are less than impressive, but he shows command of the offense and makes the most of his limited weapons. All of the sudden Mark Clayton is starting to look like Larry Fitzgerald, and it has nothing to do with Mark Clayton. Bradford came away with a win last week and has the full support of his teammates.
  • In my sports picks last week, I talked about how the Rams needed to limit Steven Jackson’s carries. Apparently they don’t read my articles, but Steven Jackson suffered his first set back of the year. He only strained his groin, but next time they might not be so lucky. Now that Bradford can take off some of the pressure Steven Jackson has had since he came out of college, the Rams need to run a more balanced attack. Why they didn’t bring in Bryan Westbrook this off season, I will never know, but if they aren’t careful, they are going to lose their best asset before the year is over.
  • Leon Washington is good, but the Rams probably aren’t going to kick the ball to him. The Rams are going to punt the ball, but expect it to sail well out of bounds. Washington showed wh7 the Seahawks made a play for him this off season. He is an amazing return man, breaking two last week against the Chargers. He single handedly brought the Seahawks to a victory. If the Rams eliminate his abilities, which I expect they will, the Seahawks lose one of their greatest offensive threats.

Wrap up:

The Rams believe they can beat lower echelon teams right now. Sam Bradford gives them hope. He isn’t Peyton Manning, but he could have the same affect on his franchise when it is all said and done. He is a polished product with a high ceiling, and seeing him win at home in back to back games would be great for Rams fans, who have had to sit through miserable seasons of late. I think Pete Carrol is going to have his hands full. He might not have known it up until the Rams took out the Redskins, but he should know it now. It will be important for him to get Justin Forsett the ball, but I don’t think it will be enough. Rams win this one outright at home.

Free NFL Pick: St. Louis +1 1/2



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