Free NFL Picks Tennessee at Dallas 10-10-2010

October 10, 2010

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Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys

October 10th, 2010 4:15 PM EST

Line: Dallas -6

Overview:

Dallas is coming off a bye week after an impressive win over their in state rivals, the Houston Texans. Questions were raised prior to the victory, but it seems the critics have been silenced, at least for the time being. The Titans come into this game at 2-2. Chris Johnson has shown a decline in production from last season and the Cowboys are going to try to keep him under control when they face off on Sunday.

Keys to the Game:

  • Chris Johnson needs to be a phenomenon for the the Titans to be productive. Vince Young is a fantastic sidekick in the Titans offense, but Johnson has to be the super hero. In the Titans two victories, he amassed 125 yards or more. In their two losses, he was held to under 60. Chris Johnson has been hit or miss. The Cowboys have had a week to game plan against Johnson. His speed is impossible to duplicate in practice, but if the Cowboys can come up with a scheme than forces the Titans to operate between the numbers, they will be more effective. Making the field smaller makes Johnson less dangerous. The Cowboys have been anything but stout against the run, so Johnson could have an impressive day.
  • Demarcus Ware is alive and well. He had people wondering when he did not look himself for the first two games, but after his three sack performance against the Texans, everyone seems to remember what number 94 brings to the table. If the Titans can’t run the ball effectively, they are going to resort to Vince Young. Demarcus Ware is going to have a field day if the Titans ever fall behind in this one.
  • Roy Williams can’t be a one hit wonder. The Cowboys stunned the Texans, largely in part because Roy Williams had two touchdowns and 117 yards. Williams played like the player Dallas thought they were getting when they traded for him. If he can continue to be a play maker, it is going to open up the entire offense. By drawing a safety over to help with coverage, Jason Witten is going to be covered by a linebacker. With Felix Jones coming out of the backfield and a developing Dez Bryant on the other side, the Cowboys could be a legitimate offense. Apparently Dez Bryant’s dinner payed dividends on the field. Maybe it should become a weekly outing.

Wrap up:

Jeff Fisher seems frustrated. The inconsistencies in the run game are making it difficult to get anything going. Regression was inevitable, given the unspeakable numbers Johnson put up last year, but the run game is so up and down this year it is hard to know what to expect. I think he has a 100 yard or so day. The Titans don’t lose when he produces, so I’m going with the Titans to win this one out right. The last time they lost after a bye week was 2004, so they are due.

Free NFL Pick: Titans +6


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