Pittsburgh at Denver 11-9-09

November 9, 2009

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NFL Preview – Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1)

By Bill Winner Freepick1.com, NFL Editor

The fans at INVESCO Field at Mile High will be treated to a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos when they take their seats on Monday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game’s total is sitting at 41½.

The Steelers defeated Minnesota 27-17 as a 6-point favorite in Week 7. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (46.5).

LaMarr Woodley scored on a fumbled recovery and Keyaron Fox scored on an interception return for Pittsburgh in the win.

The Broncos lost to Baltimore 30-7 as a 4.5-point underdog in Week 8. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Kyle Orton passed for 152 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Denver, while Knowshon Moreno rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Pittsburgh: 5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS
Denver: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2

Denver most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing Denver
Pittsburgh is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver’s last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Cincinnati, Sunday, November 15
Denver at Washington, Sunday, November 15

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Tomlin has received major praise for his ability to prepare a football team, and with more than two weeks to size up the Broncos, you can bet that the Steelers will come out with a strong game plan to beat surprising Denver. The Broncos offense has been more efficient than explosive, and it’s going to be difficult for them to stay out of mistakes against the attacking Steelers “D”. The Broncos defense is very good too, and isn’t going to let Pittsburgh run up and down the field, but the bet here is that the Steelers get a couple more short fields than does Denver, and wins the game accordingly.

FREE PICK : Steelers -3


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