College Football Betting: Opening Week (Aug. 30-Sept. 3) Trends

May 28, 2009


Karol Lucan asked:

Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on Nevada and online sportsbooks. These so-called technical handicappers use trends, or prior team tendencies, to try to predict future results:


Miami (OH) at Ball State: The visitor is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series since 1995.

Buffalo at Rutgers: Rutgers is 8-2 ATS at home in its last 10 games versus non-conference opponents.

LSU at Mississippi State: LSU is 9-1 ATS last 10 versus Mississippi State and 7-0 ATS its last seven in Starkville.

Kent State at Iowa State: Iowa State is 7-1-1 ATS versus Mid-America Conference opponents.

UNLV at Utah State: UNLV is just 6-14 ATS in September games since 2001 but Utah State is 10-19 ATS as an underdog the last three seasons.

Utah at Oregon State: Utah is 11-1 ATS as a road underdog off more than three points its last dozen games in that situation. Oregon State is 4-8 ATS in Corvallis openers since 1996.

Tulsa at ULM: Tulsa is 8-21 ATS on grass fields like the one the Golden Hurricane will play on at the University of Louisiana-Monroe.


Navy at Temple: Temple has covered three of its last four games against Navy but the Midshipmen are 9-3 as road favorites the past four years.

Washington at Syracuse: Washington is 3-14-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents. Syracuse is 18-2-2 ATS its last 22 games at home versus non-conference foes. Statistically, this is the strongest game of the opening week.


Western Michigan at West Virginia: West Virginia is just 6-12-1 ATS as a sports betting home favorite the last four years.

East Carolina at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech has covered four straight games against East Carolina and is 7-2 ATS in home openers since 1997.

Marshall at Miami (FL): Marshall is 5-10 as a road underdog the past three seasons.

Alabama-Birmingham at Michigan State: Michigan State is 5-13 ATS the last seven seasons as a double-digit home favorite.

Connecticut at Duke: UConn has won its first lined game of the season five consecutive years while Duke is 1-11 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents.

Washington State at Wisconsin: Washington State is 8-2 ATS on the road versus non-conference opponents.

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame: Georgia Tech has covered three straight against Notre Dame and is 10-6 ATS overall as a road underdog the past four seasons.

Missouri at Illinois: Missouri has covered five of its last six games against Illinois.

UCLA at Stanford: The home team is 6-1-1 ATS the last eight games in this series.

Wake Forest at Boston College: Wake Forest has covered four straight games versus Boston College.

Baylor at TCU: TCU is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home openers.

Central Michigan at Kansas: Central Michigan is 1-7 as a non-conference sports betting road underdog of 24 or fewer points.

Colorado State vs. Colorado (Denver): Colorado State is 12-5 ATS since 1986 and has covered three in a row versus rival Colorado.

Eastern Michigan at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 20 or more points.

Kansas State at Auburn: Kansas State is 1-6 ATS as a non-conference underdog of more than four points.

Bowling Green at Minnesota: Bowling Green is 6-1 ATS as a non-conference road underdog of four or more points.

Tennessee at California: Tennessee is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 openers, including a 35-18 victory over California last year.

New Mexico AT UTEP: New Mexico has covered three of the last four in this series.

San Jose State at Arizona State: Arizona State is 10-2 as a non-conference home favorite.

Idaho at USC: USC is 6-1 as a non-conference favorite of 20 or more points.

Troy at Arkansas: Troy is 9-5 ATS as a road underdog the last three seasons.

Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic: Middle Tennessee is 7-1 ATS in its first lined game of the season.


Texas Tech at SMU: SMU is 1-4 ATS in season openers the last five seasons.

Florida State at Clemson: Clemson has covered three of the last four overall and six of the last seven at home in this series.

Are the above sportsbook busters guaranteed? Of course not. But historians point out that by studying the past we’re better equipped to predict the future. That may be true for sports betting, too.

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